::sigh:: Reddit. So easily blinded by (pseudo-)science.
People are claiming that MTGox still "has" a bunch of coin. In the
near complete absence of information, maybe they do. Maybe they loaded
them onto a ship that was destroyed by a tsunami and there is now a
sunken MTGox chest of bitcoins. Maybe. Maybe the ship was really a space
ship and they're all planning to escape To The Moon. Who the heck
knows? I sure don't.
What people are doing is loading up a famous 424k BTC transaction
MTGox made in 2011. (Or at later 550k BTC transaction for which I'm
aware of no solid evidence belonged at the time to MTGox— Just some
speculation by Dooglus) and then clicking around on the movement of
funds until they find an address with a large amount of coin available
to it.
The problem is that you would expect a large portion of all withdraws
from MTGox to be linked in such a manner and certainly all very high
value ones. Once you've gone even one hop you cannot be sure that the
coins are controlled by MTGox anymore. The alternative hypotheses that
these were large manual withdraws to big purchasers is equally supported
by the data.
A significant fraction of all circulating coins are "linked" to MTGox— but this doesn't mean that MTGox currently controls them.
Other people are pointing to the constant spamming of dust that most
addresses which have received large transactions receive, claiming that
the same third party paying them proves they are somehow linked. Sorry,
it doesn't work that way. If it were so, them I am really MTGox, DPR,
Satoshi, and everyone else that has ever received Bitcoin spam (cue
mystery music).
I understand that people want to find reason to hope— I do too. I
also understand that people are eager to drive up the value of their
Goxcoin on BitcoinBuilder. But the information I'm seeing posted on
reddit is simply not good science.
If someone starts flooding you with BC.i links without clear
explanations as "proof" you should be imagining a crazy eyed conspiracy
theorist in a movie: cutting out random pictures from the news paper,
pasting them to the wall, and stringing twine all around them like some
mystical ritual. With enough guesses some are bound to be right, but
that doesn't mean that their output isn't pure noise. THEY'RE ALL LINKED!! DON'T YOU SEE!!! WE'RE BEING WATCHED!
Actual evidence would be things like the claimed address-with-coins
was a signer on a transaction that we know was created by MTGox (And
even this only because we can be relatively confident that MTGox didn't
coinjoin). Less strong evidence might be an address which paid a huge
amount of coins to a known MTGox address— though it still could have
been a deposit. No linkage evidence holds up by more than one
transaction hop, however, because the coins could change ownership in
every hop.
Anyone claiming to show MTGox coin ownership should be able to
clearly explain why their evidence shows MTGox holds the coin and how
the evidence excludes alternative hypothesis like the coins were
withdrawn from MTGox.
Also keep in mind that the 'leaked' crisis plan document can be
argued to be claiming that MTGox itself has 120k of its own Bitcoins—
there is some ambiguity about it being listed with reversed sign in the
liabilities column... so finding that many doesn't may not add credence
to high-entropy theories like losing access to private keys, that secret
ninjas are preventing them from spending coins, etc.
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