This is not a post that I can back up with statistics or real data- really just my rambling musings, so take this as entertainment.
We can all agree that there's an element of risk at play here.
We do research, we find reviews for vendors with good stealth, we take OPSEC precautions- all stuff that probably does legitimately decrease the chances of getting caught. However, we don't have any hard data on the actual risk. At what point does the value of darknet drugs override the potential for getting caught? Would you order if you knew you had a 50% chance of getting caught? What about a 10% chance? What about a %0.5 chance? Doesn't most of our risk assessment come from skewed anecdotal evidence, which we put into a picture that we've collectively decided looks like "low"?
I think at least in my case, the number I'd give for an acceptable chance of getting caught also depends on the severity of the punishment, another unknown. Does the likelihood of you ordering drugs go down if you spend an hour watching a documentary on prison life? Does the mere fact that it's drugs being ordered (substances which influence our reward systems) skew our risk-reward assessment? There's also the pleasure and reward of successfully receiving something- kind of a gambler's high, except the odds are dominated by winning instead of losing.
Are we all just flying by the seat of our pants? If I decide that I NEVER want to have a chance of going to jail, then logically I should just get out of the game, right?
It seems like there are:
-too many unknowns -a lot of bad data -emotional/psychological factors influencing risk assessment -a very high actual cost if one gets caught, but a low chance of being caught.
I'm not a statistician. Can someone give examples of other scenarios where there's a large reward, low risk chance, but very high failure cost? Is it rational to participate in these kinds of scenarios, especially if we can't pinpoint our own risk/reward ratios, much less base them on real data?
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