Risk-reward assessment for online drug buys- emotional or factual?

This is not a post that I can back up with statistics or real data- really just my rambling musings, so take this as entertainment.

We can all agree that there's an element of risk at play here.

We do research, we find reviews for vendors with good stealth, we take OPSEC precautions- all stuff that probably does legitimately decrease the chances of getting caught. However, we don't have any hard data on the actual risk. At what point does the value of darknet drugs override the potential for getting caught? Would you order if you knew you had a 50% chance of getting caught? What about a 10% chance? What about a %0.5 chance? Doesn't most of our risk assessment come from skewed anecdotal evidence, which we put into a picture that we've collectively decided looks like "low"?

I think at least in my case, the number I'd give for an acceptable chance of getting caught also depends on the severity of the punishment, another unknown. Does the likelihood of you ordering drugs go down if you spend an hour watching a documentary on prison life? Does the mere fact that it's drugs being ordered (substances which influence our reward systems) skew our risk-reward assessment? There's also the pleasure and reward of successfully receiving something- kind of a gambler's high, except the odds are dominated by winning instead of losing.

Are we all just flying by the seat of our pants? If I decide that I NEVER want to have a chance of going to jail, then logically I should just get out of the game, right?

It seems like there are:

-too many unknowns -a lot of bad data -emotional/psychological factors influencing risk assessment -a very high actual cost if one gets caught, but a low chance of being caught.

I'm not a statistician. Can someone give examples of other scenarios where there's a large reward, low risk chance, but very high failure cost? Is it rational to participate in these kinds of scenarios, especially if we can't pinpoint our own risk/reward ratios, much less base them on real data?


Comments


[5 Points] coffeencreme:

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[1 Points] LargeCockHiker:

Isn't this different for everyone? To some the profit might be worth the risk of jail


[1 Points] abmThrowaway:

To get a feel for risk, you'd have to compare use-cases and group into profiles. If you look only at raw numbers, you'll get a number that's REALLY low, but probably doesn't have any bearing on reality. Another thing that would skew any number you come up with is the fact that mailing drugs has been around for a long time. Way too many factors come into play to even remotely talk about "how risky are DNMs?"

I think the average person ordering a retail amount is pretty safe as long as you don't order a total volume that would cause LE to think you're redistruting (number of packages over time) or you aren't already on paper. Without that, it's probably too expensive for them to prove their case for it to be worth their time. For what I use the DNM for, I have minimal worries. It would cost them so much more than it's worth to gather the evidence and get a conviction that it would be ridiculous.

If you're ordering wholesale, the risk goes up by a lot. That's where your game has to be tight. You need to be set up so that even if LE knows what's up, you're still safe. This is probably the riskiest of all because not only do you have all the IRL risks, you have no idea who's watching the package. It could have been caught at any point, and unless you're willing to walk away from the shipment, you've got to be on it at some point.

If you're vending, it depends. If you're smart, you're pretty safe unless something structurally breaks down along the way. If you're dumb, you're probably in the same boat as number 2.