Package intercept stats?

Most will probably want to dismiss me outright because yes, I am new to the DNMs, and most will think I'm just paranoid. I've already gone through the whole first order thing and peering out the shades/generally scared to death thing. Still, I realize the chances are probably really low for your package to get intercepted, but I wonder if there are any real stats? Seems to me the risk for shipments is entirely on the buyer. Do buyers who get busted ever actually come here and tell people they got popped? I wonder what the ratio is on packages that get through and those that don't - and I get there are many variables. I'm talking average for packages shipped from US to US with average stealth. Probably isn't in the markets best interest to rerport on these stats if they're bad, no?


Comments


[3 Points] OfficialCrazyCracker:

Depending on who you order from and their stealth, but I'd say they don't catch anywhere near 1/1000 packs. But just a random guess.


[3 Points] sharpshooter789:

You will not find a reliable answer for this question. The researcher /u/gwern has posted some information about arrests. He even admits his list is incomplete.

While we’ll never know all the users who experience imperial entanglements, published reports at least yield a lower bound on their numbers and are enlightening as to law enforcement

Further, from what I can tell this only covers arrests. Not all seizures result in an arrest. Some buyers end up recieivng love letters which are letters stating that the package was seized for possibly containing a non-mailable item.

Anyway, here are some of the numbers.

312 arrests/legal trouble on the following markets: SR1: 138 SR2: 85 Evolution: 27 BMR: 9 Agora: 6 Utopia: 5 Sheep: 3 Hydra: 1

Due note the data only highlights older markets. It's very likely various LE agencies could have improved their tactics over the years. For instance, in the recent arrest of the vendor Narcoboss it details how he was identified by looking for mail sent from China to locations in the vicinity the vendors return address. This is the first I've heard of this ability. This suggests have some sort of database logging international mail. Not sure if ALL international mail is logged like this or just ones deemed suspicious (ie: originating from companies KNOWN to ship drugs).


[1 Points] None:

I would say less than 4 but more than 3?


[1 Points] Anotherwonton:

6000 packs an hour seems hard to catch.


[1 Points] DooshNozzzle:

way less than 1/1000 if the vendor uses mylar for smelly drugs and good stealth on the outside of the pack so it isn't obvoius.


[1 Points] fhghfhf:

sending to US, I get the impression, random search twice a year where they go through things carefully, probably xray, otherwise straight through, might vary depending on the country sent from though. maybe 1/1000


[1 Points] lshiyou:

Just a complete guess here but I'd have to say if it's a small quantity, (less than an ounce) the chances of it being seized are probably REALLY slim. Especially if the shipping is not international and especially if the package is not weed (weed naturally has more risk due to the smell possibly leaking out). I've read a few posts on here about CD's but they were for absurdly large international orders, so they were kinda asking for it. Don't fuck with customs. Other than that though, most busts that are DNM related are the vendors getting busted and that involves some heavy police profiling and surveillance over an extended period of time.


[1 Points] None:

Risk completely on the buyer ?! What the hell are you talking about? The vendor has to package and ship controlled substances threw the mail while avoiding detection. Not to mention laundering their BTC. Just look at all the vendor busts.