Frequency of Busts from just Interwebs

I read the post someone put up of Chuck Schumer crying about the explosion of DNM sales since SR bust, so DNM it'd seem that DNMs are in the media's radar. That being said and the point of that assumption, it would seem like busts that were related to the DNMs would be pretty highly publicized at least on a regional/local level if not national level. Given that, it seems like every bust I read about is related to either IRL activities, bad luck, or stupidity on someone's part (either vendor or the buyer). Almost every article I read makes no mention of DNM. For instance, recent articles I read about involved coke being sent to a vacant lot/drop address that was returned to sender, which went to a real, but unrelated, address. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd assume that was DNM related. The article didn't say explicitly.

Anyway, all that being said, from what I've read just following the news, it seems like busts aren't a direct result of DNM but more of IRL activities that uncover these activities. Obviously, as many point out, not one case has been made with bitcoin chains (hence, why many don't believe in tumbling). In fact, I don't know if I've read an article that really mentioned DNM. We hear about Senators and law enforcement talking up DNMs being public enemy #1 but you really never hear about any efforts LE is doing to make a dent in the markets. This could either be good news in that LE doesn't have a strategy to tackle DNM in any appreciable way. OR, it could be extremely bad news - if the government is indeed making major headway, they'd probably shut up about it and we'll read about it in the papers a year or two later and think "holy shit, they were actually doing some major shit." Someone else also posted that the postal inspector services 50K requests from LE. I agree, that's 50K too many, but in the grand scheme of things, that's such a tiny number it's like scooping the ocean a teaspoon at a time. Or am I totally misinterpreting that?

I don't know if I have a real point except what are the thoughts that almost all busts are really just tangential to DNM and more old fashioned drug bust type shit - in real life, local cops, etc. If this is the case, it seems that unless a vendor is totally sloppy, very few packages should ever be intercepted, especially domestically. It seems like it'd have to be like the Morton Salt girl - dripping coke out of the package the whole way to get busted (if reference is missed, Morton Salt has a logo with a girl carrying salt home and its leaking as she's walking from a tear in the bag). If this is the case, vendor stealth and making sure a vendor isn't a honeypot should solve 99.9% of any problem.

Am I totally out of whack? I just don't see a whole lot of evidence of CDs or busts coming from the shit we tend to be paranoid about. From what I remember reading, its almost always from some other factor, unless media just doesn't care to mention DNMs.

TL;DR: Are there any busts on DNMs (aside from the obvious SR) that wasn't the result of some random IRL fuckup or just IRL bad luck? Or is the silence/lack of news, really a bad omen?


Comments


[4 Points] None:

There is someone here who has been compiling a list of darknet related busts (forgot his name). I think your general impression is correct - one of them was a kid who got drugs to his house and his mom turned him in. Cases where LE were actively investigating the darknet are really, really rare.

There is a lot of FUD spread here which makes people paranoid. That's probably a good thing. I think the reason you don't see more darknet busts is that it is just really hard for LE to do. Much easier to just rely on informants.

If you are interested in this, you should take a look at how SR1 was taken down. It was a few small (but really stupid) mistakes. Similar with the small number of vendors who were arrested.

I don't have any hard numbers, but it seems likely that thousands of shipments go out daily. Arrests are a very unusual event, if you discount rumors and FUD. It could be that the chance of an arrest is less than 1:50,000 or better.


[2 Points] thascarecro:

Not all busts are posted on reddit or taken to the local newspaper.


[1 Points] zee1000:

Considering that its a proven fact its impossible to take down cartels, i coudl imagine LE would want to target DNM as it is at least a discernible target. Thats all speculation on my part.


[1 Points] sharpshooter789:

Here's a good site that chronicles the silk road investigation and includes many of the arrests.

http://antilop.cc/sr/