Bitcoin network to be flooded monday, expect deposit/withdrawls to be delayed for days

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3agk61/ultimate_bitcoin_stress_test_monday_june_22nd/

Three days ago, CoinWallet.eu initiated a relatively limited stress test on the Bitcoin blockchain to determine whether or not we alone could have a large impact on the ecosystem as a whole. While our initial tests merely created full blocks for a multiple hour period, transaction confirmation times remained within 6 blocks for most transactions. This test was both limited and basic.

Today we undertook a similar testing initiative once again, this time with a modified methodology. The result was roughly 3 hours of full blocks combined with increased confirmation times for many Bitcoin transactions. By selecting random transactions that were not initiated by our team, we were able to determine that many standard fee transactions were taking 2-5 blocks before receiving a single confirmation.

Bitcoin is at a breaking point, yet the core developers are too wound up in petty arguments to create the required modifications for long term sustainability. If nothing is done, Bitcoin will never be anything more than a costly science project. By stress testing the system, we hope to make a clear case for the increased block size by demonstrating the simplicity of a large scale spam attack on the network.

The plan - We have setup 10 Bitcoin servers that will send approximately 2 transactions per second each - Each of these transactions will be approximately 3kb in size and will each spend to 10-20 addresses - The outputs will then be combined to create large 15-30kb transactions automatically pointing back to the original Bitcoin servers. Example: https://blockchain.info/tx/888c5ccbe3261dac4ac0ba5a64747777871b7b983e2ca1dd17e9fc8afb962519

Certain servers will be configured to include marginally larger than standard fees, thus guaranteeing delays from standard SPV wallets.

The target will be to generate 1mb worth of transaction data every 5 minutes. At a cost of 0.0001 per kb (as per standard fees) this stress test will cost approximately 0.1 BTC every five minutes. Another way to look at the cost is 0.1 BTC per full block that we generate. We have allocated 20 BTC for this test, and therefore will be able to single handedly fill 100 blocks, or 32 hours worth of blocks. However, we will stop pushing transactions after 24 hours at 13:00 GMT Tuesday June 23.

Predictions

Our above estimates are based on 1 block being mined every 10 minutes. This is standard, however deviations are likely to create temporary blips in our testing, in particular when there is an hour gap between confirmations.
The above calculations are based on each block being exactly 1mb and no other transactions appearing in the blocks. This is obviously unrealistic due to the fact that the average block size without our intervention is approximately 600kb. Furthermore, at least 30% of miners continue to cap blocks at 731kb. Others cap at 926kb.

Conclusions

For the sake of avoiding un-necessary calculations, lets assume that each block is 926kb in size, the average normal Bitcoin transaction volume is 600kb per block, and CoinWallet.eu will be pushing 2mb of transaction data into the network every 10 minutes. Under these conditions, the amount of transaction data being pushed to the network every 10 minutes (or every average block) will be ~2600kb. This will result in a 1674 kb backlog every 10 minutes.

By 14:00 GMT Monday June 22, the mempool of standard fee transactions will be 10mb By 24:00 GMT Monday June 22nd, the mempool of standard fee transactions will be 130mb By 13:00 GMT Tuesday June 22rd, the mempool of standard fee transactions will be 241mb

At this point the backlog of transactions will be approximately 241 blocks, or 1.67 days. When the average new transactions are factored into the equation, the backlog could drag on for 2-3 days. At this point, questions are raised such as whether or not this will cause a "crash landing." It is impossible to know with certainty, however we are anxiously looking forward to Monday.


Comments


[30 Points] want2vape:

Hackers, crackers and whackers week here at /darknetmarkets.


[22 Points] eragmus:

Relax, DNM'ers.

The 20 bitcoins are being donated/spent generously to fix a problem: scalability. Bitcoin (and all cryptocurrency for that matter; regardless of what you may read, real scalability has not been solved yet -- http://lightning.network, funded by Blockstream, is one of the real trustless solutions being worked on to provide scalability for Bitcoin that would allow 10,000x the current volume) works great for the current demand, but increasing demand by 3x or higher has currently unknown effects. Transactions may get delayed so that instead of confirming one time within 1 block, it takes longer, but what else may happen is theoretical.

So, the idea is to stress test the network to see how it handles suddenly increased demand, either of the natural sort or artificial in the sense of a malicious attack. It is better to do a controlled stress test of the network now, rather than wait for demand to skyrocket one day and have the Bitcoin ecosystem unprepared to deal with the consequences.

There is also a vigorous debate right now on /r/bitcoin, regarding if and how to make changes to the network to allow it to temporarily scale until Lightning and other solutions are fully developed. This primarily concerns either increasing the block size from 1MB to a static limit like 4MB, 8MB, or 20MB, or arranging it so that it perpetually increases at a fixed rate or dynamic rate. There are a lot of concerns to consider, such as ensuring the network remains stable and secure and decentralized, and it is being hashed out.

To return to the issue at hand (Monday's stress test), here is some advice:

Hope this helps.


[5 Points] None:

I... Well... Fuck....

Cool I guess?


[4 Points] _TROLL:

we were able to determine that many standard fee transactions were taking 2-5 blocks

If you include a higher-than-average miner's fee, it becomes that much more likely for your transaction to be included in the next block, right? So while these people are doing spam/dust transactions, when you deposit to DNM, instead of doing the generic 0.0001 BTC miner fee, make it 0.0003 BTC or something. It will cost you a whopping extra nickel.

Withdrawals might be a problem, since many DNMs are coded to automatically correlate the miner's fee with the transaction size. Worst case, I guess you'd have to wait a day.


[3 Points] Trappy_Pandora:

Well this is going to suck for most vendors.


[4 Points] Rolling_Stonedd:

You didn't even spell Bitcoin right in your username.


[2 Points] None:

ELI5? I have no idea what's happening.


[2 Points] Cum4Me666:

How drunk are you?


[2 Points] None:

Seems like you already proved your point. You don't need to hold the blockchain hostage...


[2 Points] Baraclough-X:

If the numbers that these jackasses projected are correct, a 36+ hour lag time is gonna cause a MASSIVE drop in Bitcoin value. Probably temporary, but we don't exactly need these people to drop a match into a currency that's as volatile as rocket fuel, even on it's best days. GOD....DAMMIT....


[2 Points] 13tom13:

ELI5 plz


[2 Points] TotesMessenger:

I'm a bot, bleep, bloop. Someone has linked to this thread from another place on reddit:

If you follow any of the above links, please respect the rules of reddit and don't vote in the other threads. (Info / Contact)


[2 Points] None:

Why do you think anyone here would support you basically fucking over BTC for nearly a week?


[1 Points] DancingWindAway:

Up you go


[1 Points] dilirio25:

[deleted]

What is this?


[1 Points] We_Are_Never_Safe:

[deleted]

What is this?


[1 Points] damnmachine:

Thanks for the heads up.


[1 Points] The_fire_bird:

Has Cody Wilson put you up to this?


[-4 Points] None:

can you maybe just not do this? like please? fuck is wrong with you, bitcoin isn't broken, quit trying to fix it. Rather than taking the 20 bitcoin on a stupid project, spend it trying to fix the problem