This post is in response to all of the "should I panic yet when my package is X days late posts" that appear like clockwork every few days. I've been shipping Priority Mail packages all over the USA for several years. I won't get into specifically how many. I will say that I've shipped enough packages to be able draw some statistically valid conclusions.
RELIABILITY. Assuming the shipper uses reasonable stealth (meaning it doesn't reek of weed or something similarly obvious), extremely reliable. In my experience, 100.0% reliable. That's just my own experience and obviously nothing is 100% reliable. But I have shipped enough packages to be pretty confident that the loss rate in transit for packages addressed to valid addresses (with legible addresses), packaged correctly according to USPS guidelines and legibly addressed, is less than 1 in 1,000. Probably much lower than that.
I check all addresses provided by buyers against USPS address database to make sure addresses are valid. I have been able to avoid shipping several packages that would probably not have been successfully delivered by doing that.
BUYERS, READ THIS!! Some important lessons here! I'm sure I'm in the minority of vendors who validate addresses before shipping. As as buyer, you may have no control over the shipper's stealth (other than choosing a vendor who has good reviews on stealth - that's important too), but the accuracy of the shipping address you provide to the vendor is the other possible weak link in the chain so don't screw it up. Double check the address before you encrypt it with your order (you are encrypting your address aren't you?). One thing that is a red flag -- if the name of the recipient is not the name of a person that usually receives mail at this address, the mail carrier is very likely to notice that and it may cause delays or raise questions in the mail carrier's mind. Don't make this mistake. You do not want your package to appear unusual to the mail carrier.
ADDRESS GUIDELINES: If you don't know what your address looks like in the standardized USPS format, do a zip code lookup of your shipping address on the USPS web site. When the system returns the result, notice how the system also made some changes to your address. That's the standardized address format for your address. For example, if you enter Lazy Lane, the address from zip code look up will come back as LAZY LN. Please don't spell out your state name. That just wastes the vendor's time. There is NO REASON to enter New Jersey. Put NJ. Put ST not Street. Really simple stuff that makes your vendor's life easier and may just make your package arrive a little faster. I have a couple of New Jersey buyers who routinely spell out their state name. I don't know what's up with you people in NJ, but hopefully those buyers are reading this and are paying attention! Sorry to pick on you folks from NJ but seems to be an issue from that state for some strange reason.
WHEN DO MOST PACKAGES GET LOST/STOLEN? After they are successfully delivered. Most people's mail does not get delivered to secure locked areas. If you live in an apartment building with locked boxes in the lobby for each apartment that are big enough to hold small parcels, you are lucky but in the minority. Everyone else is at risk of having their mail stolen from their curbside mailboxes. I should mention that there a pluses and minuses to having a rented PO Box either at the post office or at a mail service center, but one advantage is that your mail is usually more secure after delivery to one of those locations. So if your mail gets delivered to a less than perfectly secure location, please don't blab to "friends" or family members or enemies or anyone else about what you're expecting in the mail. Keep it to yourself. And be very cautious about asking a trusted friend to receive a shipment for you. That is the most common situation where packages vanish. "My friend said it never showed up" is the most common thing I've heard from buyers. Well, given my experience re: USPS reliability, I strongly suspect that the trusted friend was not so trustworthy after all. That situation has come up with 2 of the shipments I sent out this week. In both cases the buyer admitted maybe he shouldn't have trusted that friend after all. Don't get yourself in that situation. If you are thinking of having someone else's address on the package -- someone you think is trustworthy? I would strongly advise you do to come up with another solution.
PRIORITY MAIL SHIPPING SPEED. I have shipped enough packages be confident that my statistics are accurate for shipments originating in northern California. The should be reasonably close to accurate for any mainland originating address. Add a couple of days to these averages for holiday weekends, periods around Christmas, or when there is severe weather (blizzards, hurricanes). From northern California, Priority Mail shipped to any USA mainland address arrives within 2 business days for 93% of USA addresses and within 3 business days for 98% of USA addresses. In my experience, 98% of packages shipped on either Friday or Saturday will arrive at their destination on Monday. Yes USPS Priority Mail moves at light speed over the weekend for some reason. So what about the other 2% of packages? Well for some reason I have not been able to come up with any logical explanation for, a certain small percentage of packages either take a scenic route across the country, or maybe slipped off a pallet and were lost in a corner of a sorting center for a few days, who knows why. But a small number of PM packages vanishes from tracking for anywhere from 3 to 7 business days. In my experience, they eventually reappear and are delivered to their destination address apparently no worse for wear. A couple have arrived a bit beaten up or looking like they had been run over by the mail truck, but for me at least they have all eventually shown up. Obviously no system is completely perfectly reliable and I'm sure some tiny percentage of PM packages disappear and are never seen again. Of course some small number are somehow detected and intercepted by Postal Inspector but with competent stealth and shipping practices, you can expect that number to be very very small. So don't despair if you package has been in transit more than 5 or 7 business days. They usually make it to their destination eventually.
If your package is one of those that is delayed, please give your vendor the benefit of the doubt and wait the amount of time that they specify in their terms and conditions before bugging them about your package. Vendors each have their own guidelines and refund policies so be sure and read that stuff before ordering.
VENDOR SHIPPING POLICIES. Different vendors have different policies concerning refunds for packages that don't arrive at their destination. What's a reasonable policy? Think about what factors are in the vendor's control vs not in the vendor's control. By carefully and legibly addressing the package, and making sure that the address is a valid USPS address, a vendor can sure a package is "deliverable". By using good stealth, the vendor can make it extremely unlikely that shipments will be intercepted in transit. But once the package is dropped off at the delivery address by mail carrier, the vendor has no control from that point forward. So look for shipment guarantees in a vendor's policy that provides a delivery guarantee to the shipment address. It's reasonable to expect a quality vendor to provide that type of delivery guarantee. That's why most good vendors will refund or reship if package tracking shows a package was never delivered. Exceptions to the delivery guarantee often include "undeliverable, return to sender" packages which usually mean buyer provided an invalid address. Don't try to hold a vendor accountable if a delivery made to your 'trusted friend' disappears. That's not the vendor's responsibility.
Don't ask the vendor for a tracking number. There's a very good reason good, smart vendors refuse to provide tracking numbers. Tracking numbers come in pads or rolls of sequentially numbered labels. If a buyer was LE and got vendor to give them the tracking number, they could flag and intercept all the packages before and after that package in the number sequence. So don't get irritated with vendors for refusing to give out that information.
Hopefully this TL;DR post was helpful to some. If I missed covering some information, feel free to ask questions in the comments. If I have the answer, I may edit the main post to include the information (I'll mention that in the comment reply if I do that). I also hope that this reassures some of you who are contemplating making your first darknetmarket purchase. If you pay attention to the guidelines and suggestions in this post, odds are very, very good that you'll have a happy, successful transaction, and you'll have your drugs in just a few days.
Great post, finally someone with common sense about shipping times/policies.