The Unfortunate Current State of the Markets

Below is a post that I made in another sub. I'm curious to know what people's thoughts on this are:

I think one of the main problems with the DNM is that success breeds failure and there is a self-limiting factor when it comes to quality vendors.

LE seems to mostly spend resources on busting the bigger, more popular vendors. A vendor becomes big/popular when they sell for a reasonable price and are reliable. Positive reviews stem from receiving quality product at a reasonable price in an expected time frame. This keeps shitty vendors small and brings heat on larger vendors.

If you look at some of the busts over the last 12 months, you will notice many of the top vendors for a given product have gotten popped. This creates an incentive for other successful vendors to exit scam and try to exit the game with money and freedom. Market exit scams just perpetuate this trend.

So what's left? Shitty vendors and a user base that trusts no one. Thus markets and vendors stay small with quality and quantity becoming rare. Throw in the hassle of learning opsec and obtaining btc, wait times, and prices that don't incentivize users (for anything besides MDMA, LSD and obscure products) and you have the current state of the market - fragmented, distrustful, small, and unreliable. It's a shame.


Comments


[5 Points] HereBeDragonsSupport:

It's better not to think of it like this. Life itself acts in this way, when trees grow old and die, new trees sprout from them, just as smaller vendors replace larger vendors who have left. There will never be a time when these markets are completely stable, with the same set of vendors running everything. While big vendors often have the best prices, this isn't always the case. The great thing about these markets is everyone has a chance. If you have better prices than the next guy, then you have a pretty good shot at success. The markets aren't in a state of despair, they're in a state of development. Things will get better :)


[2 Points] furthur2:

I'm not a vendor, but an occasional consumer, and find this whole thing very interesting. I don't know if this is accurate, but perhaps you missed one additional scenario: a vendor gets big and popular, known for quality, good prices, etc., but instead of exit scamming, moves off of the markets doing direct deals with a smaller set of customers (perhaps those buying larger quantities). Again, I'm not a vendor, so I don't know if this makes sense, but in theory, it would protect them to some extent from becoming a big LE target, since they're not as visible, cut the risk of market exit scams, and generally make everything easier. Same goes for the customer in this case.

This would result in the same end scenario you described as far as the state of the markets, except you also end up with less demand, as you lose those frequent, loyal customers that are now purchasing direct. As a result, there may be less incentive for new vendors to step in, unless there are new buyers coming in at the same rate.

I don't know if this adds any useful information, but I wonder if others think this could be happening, in which case there would be less incentive to innovate and move markets forward, because they're only being used as a way for vendors to establish themselves and connect with a solid customer base, not used a reliable source of ongoing business.


[2 Points] Uvjcjchchcgzd:

There are still reliable old timers since the start of the Agora days chugging along nicely. Some of them are big time vendors. Often small and medium volume vendors are also the best in quality and customer service.


[2 Points] PhriskyDingough:

The old timers are still here man. People who have been doing this for the duration are still doing it, they just switch names and places. We're not going anywhere. I feel that it is slightly too accessible to plebes and that's where a lot of our problems are coming from. Greedy people saw this game working and got into it with the idea of making money and fucked it all up. We need to get back to our roots. Good drugs and good prices, good stealth, good opsec.
Markets like Dream, Nuc, dhl and even Alpha Bay have been up long enough and have been running tight enough ships that I feel comfortable this community isn't going anywhere.
It's a beautiful thing.


[1 Points] darktriaddd:

Bums me out to think that my favorites vendors today will at some point either close up honestly, exit, or get popped. Sigh.


[1 Points] noseybast:

Small vendors getting busted doesn't make the news, small vendors are more likely to be busted for reasons other than their darknet activities