My Speculation on Agora and Evolution

Whether you care to admit it or not, I think most people will agree that Agora and Evolution are currently the top marketplaces.

Pretty soon all the other small marketplaces will die out, and vendors and users will all move to either one of these sites.

At this point, it would be EXTREMELY foolish for Agora or Evo to run an exit scam. These two markets are basically competing for almost complete control of the Darknet Market game.

I'm pretty sure that the owners of these sites know this also. Evolution is stepping up their game with excellent customer support and a beautiful site layout to compete with Agora. The owner of Agora could easily make A LOT of money if they don't allow Evo to take the lead.

Personally, I always prefer a ONE Super(Darknet)Market. Silkroad 1 was the original super market. Sure BMR existed, but Silkroad 1 had a monopoly almost.

It's crazy to think how quickly marketplaces die out. If Sheep wouldn't have fucked up, they would be the leading market right now. If "The Marketplace" didn't fuck everyone, they would control the game. If Pandora didn't steal from their users, they would probably be tied with Agora and Evo.

It's funny to think how so many markets could have had control, but they always ended up scamming their users.

I think Evo and Agora will be around for a while.


Comments


[20 Points] ta1337marketnoob:

To be honest I don't like the idea of one "super" darknet market. I think having a selection of them is better for consumers for a multitude of reasons.


[7 Points] _-________________-_:

Speaking of speculation, is there anyone here who thinks Evolution is almost "too polished" and "too well run"? That the entire site could be an LE sting operation? Or is it just my own paranoia-induced FUD?

Maybe I haven't been checking enough, but I've never seen the market site down, nor its forums for that matter. Its layout is an order of magnitude better than Agora's. It has failsafes (backup onion addresses), unlike Agora. Server and bandwidth-wise, it must be very well-funded. Its admins and support staff are incredibly prompt and also incredibly visible — they openly post on Reddit and they greet every new user on the forums. Compare again to Agora, whose admins barely say anything even after the forums were dead for a week! Evolution's lineage derives from a carding forum, the market specializes in fraud stuff, and we know how much the Feds love carding markets (see ShadowCrew, DarkMarket, literally run by the FBI). Vendor accounts were free for months on end, encouraging the noobiest of noob vendors to sign up.

Circumstantial evidence? Sure. To be fair, I don't recall seeing an arrest related to Evolution yet, but maybe the hammer will be dropped on multiple people at once. I can't shake the feeling that something is "off" with that market.


[7 Points] None:

Money isn't the only reason exit scams are pulled, though. They're also pulled because the heat is getting to be too much. Why not make a shit load of money at the last moment, as well as getting off of the feds' radar?


[8 Points] galaxyandspace:

Pretty soon all the other small market places will die out

Not gonna happen. In a truly free anon market, there will always be competition.

One super market means we all get scammed, at some point. It's a bad idea. Just like stock, it is better to spread your risk, then dump it in one place...


[3 Points] drewster23:

If agora had a better freaking lay out, id be a lot happier.


[3 Points] gerundive:

Pretty soon all the other small marketplaces will die out...

Some people prefer the smaller markets because they are smaller. The better ones tend to have niche products with knowledgeable buyers, a tighter control of approved vendors, friendlier forums with more of a community feel, more stability because they are not growing exponentially, effective support, less downtime, and a lower profile resulting in fewer hacking attacks.


[2 Points] hugsfordrugs:

Gonna have to disagree with you on this one (my own speculation, not to be taken as fact or any higher than yours). My first point is in what I replied to /u/ghillrocker1. As stable as both of the markets in question have been, that all could change in a heartbeat. Consistency is wonderful and I'll never undervalue its importance in the growth and success of a DNM, but it cannot be overvalued to the point in which our security, OPSEC, etc relax because we believe the market has earned our trust. No market should ever earn your full trust.

In regards to your preference of one or two large markets instead of the plethora available, this is a direct contradiction to the way businesses work (and thrive) in real life. Competition is always good; it keeps competitors sharp and challenged.


[2 Points] AlexSosa1KG:

I'm probably one vendor that's gonna stay away from Agora. The amount of time it's down is fucking ridiculous. Ppl have told me to join it and I'll get more exposure but I'll get way too frustrated if I have orders and the site is down.


[2 Points] gwern:

At this point, it would be EXTREMELY foolish for Agora or Evo to run an exit scam. These two markets are basically competing for almost complete control of the Darknet Market game.

What good is money if you can't spend it? Either because you've been busted or you have no way to cash it out. And don't forget diminishing returns - $10m of profits is not 10x better than $1m. At some point, you'll want to retire rather than end up like Ross Ulbricht.


[1 Points] None:

[deleted]


[1 Points] None:

Personally I hope that decentralized services will replace the current swath of markets. It's already possible to implement an openbazaar-style system into a blockchain and I know at least one team is working on this.