Hey all,
I've been using Wallet Explorer to investigate Agora's wallets, and I've found some intriguing/concerning stuff.
Around 24,000 BTC accumulating in addresses that may be controlled by Agora
There are currently around 23,960 BTC sitting in storage addresses that I suspect are controlled by Agora. The bulk of this money seems to be drawn in large chunks from Agora deposit addresses (I'm basing this on Wallet Explorer), so it doesn't appear to be standard market fees. And most of the storage addresses are basically receive-only, so it's unlikely they have any operational use. Of course, there's no way to conclusively prove Agora owns these addresses, but considering (a) the size of the transactions (millions of dollars in the last few months), (b) their uniqueness compared to other Agora transactions, and (c) the fact that the bitcoins are just sitting there, its hard to imagine where else these coins would be going.
(EDIT: Apparently I'm not the first person to suspect this, see impost_r's post from December: http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2o4qf6/addresses_agora_controlled_addresses_sent_large/. Note that the balance of these addresses has increased by nearly 14,000 BTC since then!)
For example, after being funded with 536.8 BTC of Agora money on 11/25/14, this address has been receiving 50 BTC chunks regularly since 12/5/14: http://www.walletexplorer.com/address/1923qxU74HWWz75LgWTsPE4FT9Zyd6n6bv. It's balance is currently 14636.8468236. Here's a similar address with a balance of 2350: http://www.walletexplorer.com/address/152p1VPp2UYceP9BLtJRLoMgoErQRCryTt.
Other storage addresses that seem to be controlled by Agora:
http://www.walletexplorer.com/address/1GE26MHLB3pvtQdV9BFtfPc7tD12b72NtE (2393.10046)
http://www.walletexplorer.com/address/1AtPMyFrbjvEAZyAHvkQ5SBNyou33m5Eft (1730.00001)
http://www.walletexplorer.com/address/18p3VadubeccpJnhBQkyrbs6SQPN5WCf8J (1950)
http://www.walletexplorer.com/address/152p1VPp2UYceP9BLtJRLoMgoErQRCryTt (2350)
http://www.walletexplorer.com/address/18vssbRHFbSrDttAAg9tX1TtwSvUyCKJwd (900)
http://www.walletexplorer.com/address/17DhzPwQLvpoB1xy1mSt2XTCFmePgGUh2r
http://www.walletexplorer.com/address/1CG4oDeiDcm5QSQhbXmfLmPzdZGANymaxS
I'd like to see what percentage of Agora deposits is going to these storage addresses (to determine whether whether it's reasonable profit taking or something more nefarious) but Wallet Explorer doesn't offer a way to filter by incoming transactions. Anyone have a program that can do that? Also, some of the activity in these addresses seems to coincide with downtime in late November (and the current downtime), so the timing is worth looking into further.
Getting a little crazy now: Possible Agora-SR2 connection?
(Edit: This is more of an aside, just something interesting I saw. Not necessarily connected to the stuff above!)
This could use double checking, but it looks like substantial amounts of BTC were sent directly from Silk Road 2 to Agora's operators in the days and weeks leading up to the SR2 seizure.
From 11/17/14 to 12/11/14, this address accumulated 568 BTC, mostly from known Agora addresses: http://www.walletexplorer.com/address/1MAqDMezJAe1Am4gcZhKc8etYJqSPBoRfD. (This activity looks very similar to the storage addresses discussed above.)
On 12/17, the entire balance is spent in this transaction: http://www.walletexplorer.com/txid/9a9cf7a153bcf0eac837c7d5c82bd5ec7e803fc6331debd53090f7e4bbfc7a5f. If you check the other addresses spending coins in that TX, you'll see several of them received a bunch of money from SR2, mostly in 30 BTC chunks during late Oct and early Nov. So whoever owns the 1MAqD... address (looks like it might be Agora) also owns the addresses receiving money from SR2 just prior to its fall.
Of course I could be interpreting this wrong (and Wallet Explorer could be wrong!), so if anyone wants to take a look and share your thoughts, I'd appreciate it.
This is all I have time for at the moment, but I have a bunch of notes on this stuff so can provide more info when I get a chance later. In the meantime, please feel free to tell me if you spot something I missed!
Everyday after I wake up, I check this sub reddit for my juicy drama of the day. I've been doing this everyday for over a year. Let me tell you something.
I am never disappoint.