[CommunityDiscussion] Vendor Observations on USPS Domestic Delivery.

First, I would like to say that I specifically booted up my secure machine, logged on and made this post to call out the poster of the other USPS domestic thread. I very seriously doubt that the OP of that post has the experience to make such claims.

As someone who has sent thousands of packages through USPS priority mail, most of them containing illegal goods, I would like to share some observations/experience/statistics I have kept in hopes that the community will be better informed. Note, everything written here should be taken as information pertaining to priority mail.

At this point you may ask yourself, why is there so much variance in shipping speed then?

Note, the following statistics are taken from my encrypted records I use for tracking. No customer addresses, information, or anything else that can tie a customer to an order is stored with this information. Full tracking numbers are deleted three weeks after an order has been placed. Customer user names (only the first and last two characters) are stored via a cypher within the encrypted file that I decode in my head. Tracking information is only pulled four business days after I expect the package to have been postmarked and only if a customer requests it (except during one USPS snafu, where I was randomly pulling from about 75 orders). I do not act, give out or notate a tracking event unless 8 business days have passed. Thus, I would not treat the data below as a complete picture since there is a chance that tracking was never pulled if a customer never voiced a concern.

Of the 2341 packages I have shipped to date:

I am a relatively trusting person, I only believe to have been on the receiving end of a scam 3 times of those 31. So, if your package has not arrived, chances are it was delivered and either your postman, roommate, parents etc. stole it or trashed it.

That leaves 14 packages unaccounted for. Of these:

There you have it: 90%+ of packages should land within 2-3 days for a vendor who routinely ships close to a major hub (give them one extra day in case they miss a box pickup time). 95% of packages should land within five business days. Cut vendors 1-2 days slack on the exact day they marked shipped as they could confuse which ones were shipped that day or could have dropped into a box USPS failed to pick up. About 3% of packs are claimed undelivered, of these most are marked delivered by USPS. Only .6% of packages (mine at least) could have been seized, more likely lost due to USPS sorting.

That being said, USPS does experience delays sometimes. Heavy shipping periods can cause hubs to lag up to two days for package intake (once scanned in, they still get delivered in two days). One period of shipping was eliminated from this data, during which a hub that a number of my packages went through seemed to break entirely. A lot of packages got scanned in from hubs in different states, some never got scanned and customers still finalized, and a solid 60% of my order batches from that 5 day period landed past the first week. This occurrence has only happened once since I started vending, if a vendor claims this routinely happens they're lying; however, understand that sorting through the shitshow of tracking down that many orders was extremely stressful, so do not bury a vendor if there is a chance that they're actually losing packs.

Finally, reasons vendors do not like giving out tracking numbers:

1) It creates an unreasonable customer support load on a vendor

2) It adds a lot of additional stress if we are paranoid that our customer's packs are not landing

3) It would allow LE to flag the number being scanned in which could allow them to flag all sequential tracking numbers (tracking numbers are not randomized, they're built to look that way but there is a distinct pattern, one that I assume was intentionally used to obscure the fact that USPS can pull tracking from the same roll). Releasing a tracking number to a customer when the majority of the packages from that order batch are still in the system could significantly increase the chances of other customers receiving CDs. Since packages are not normally scanned until they reach the hub, it theoretically does not threaten the vendor, it could definitely lead to another customer from the same order batch having their package pulled.

4) Even if they were not able to pull the packages in time to conduct CDs, it would allow them to get the package fronts from a number of other order drops. All of these images would allow LE to build a package/shipping profile faster which directly harms the vendor.

In other words, stop asking for tracking, any vendor that gives it to you is an idiot and is endangering their customers. Please destroy our tracking labels when you get them.

I'll stick around for a bit if anyone has questions. Stim


Comments


[15 Points] define_irony:

That's a lot of info that I really think people need to know. Thank you for typing this all out.


[4 Points] None:

[deleted]


[3 Points] drpnit:

Wow -- thanks Stim. This is a wealth f information, and confirms what I've always thought.


[3 Points] fggetem:

Pretty good read, I just had a package that says delivered from this week and is no where to be found. Called post office I have had a sub mail man off an on (was wondering why his routes we super earlier than usual) and now that mail man has no clue about a package. Out of over 50 packs on the darknet this is my first one that I have no clue what happened. Probably a misdelivery and a dumb neighbor.

I would also add misdelivery on that list for reasons packs dont show after delivered. All it takes is a mis delivery then a dumb neighbor thinking that someones going to show up asking for the package.


[3 Points] sapiophile:

Really awesome info from an obviously very intelligent vendor. Serious props, I wish all vendors had your kind of wits.

/u/changetip $2


[2 Points] grandpajoe_dnm:

Thanks


[2 Points] basementjaxxx:

wow I'm going to stop bugging vendors to give me my tracking numbers. I had no idea that it is not a good practice to do


[1 Points] dankkushpush:

Most informative post I have ever red


[1 Points] 83jdbvbvbvbv:

I have to disagree about not offering tracking #'s, if a package gets seized or they do an undercover buy or they straight up are profiling your packages in your area they can grab it just as easily then lookup all numbers on the roll pull up the package scans from their db and find all your customers, the only safe option is to not have tracking at all but if youre going to offer tracking then you might as well offer tracking #'s otherwise you just look like a scammer thats bsing.


[1 Points] og_vendor:

I've been vending for 5 years since before SR when there were private forums, shipped over 100 packages. 100% always shipped USPS with stamps, U.S. only, never another way. Always dropped in blue boxes and I live in a large urban area.

I've never had a package not arrive, unless it was a scammer or autofinalized.

Here is one thing I noticed - packages at my hub sometimes get routed as media mail if they are not put into a priority mail envelope and it takes a week, then customers start emailing you. I just email them back to hold on and the package always arrives a day or two after that.

The exception to this delay is if there is a tracking sticker on the package, then those get treated as priority mail. Otherwise, even if you have priority mail postage your package, my hub sorts as media mail unless it's in a priority mail envelope.

I never give out tracking numbers because that is evidence if the customer is LE. Packages always arrive, the tracking is just in case of a dispute


[1 Points] moose3025:

One thing I would like to mention is this doesn't account for post offices that straight up lie about the shipping times in their tracking. I live in an apartment building in a bit so great area of Philly and my packages will get marked delivered 2 to 3 days before they actually drop the packages off at my building. I think it's so their numbers look better because sometimes they'll even go back and change it blatantly to make them look better. If you don't love in Philly though you don't have to worry. I'm talking like any package by the way even Amazon prime I'll get my packages like 3 or 4 days late.


[1 Points] Drogka:

This is what I call a professional! Thanks man for the information!


[1 Points] None:

Really great and informative post. This should be added to the side bar so customers can actually understand what process their packs are going through.


[1 Points] californiadreams1:

Thanks!


[1 Points] None:

[deleted]


[1 Points] 27clubhereicome:

TSG99 for president! This was very informative, and I'll remember it next time I'm looking for my fun-time nasal poison.


[1 Points] synestter:

Thanks for this!


[1 Points] None:

Thank you, awesome you did this


[1 Points] Bertram--Cooper:

Gold Jerry.. GOLD...

I'm saving this as a wordpad doc and it will now be my bible. I feel like I already have very good opsec.. but can always learn a thing or to!

edit: I too would like to say that I'm posting this and only use this account on my throw away PC.


[1 Points] HotSouper:

How do you get tracking on a package without going into the post office?


[1 Points] eyedeethrowawaze:

tracking numbers are not randomized, they're built to look that way but there is a distinct pattern, one that I assume was intentionally used to obscure the fact that USPS can pull tracking from the same roll

Yes that in part, but they also (warning: theory) don't want customers to be able to easily guess other people's tracking numbers by adding a 1 to the last digit(s).

It was the same with DCN numbers on those green stickers before Priority changed. Vendors should never grab a straight stack. You pull from different places in the stack and from multiple POs.


[1 Points] MethVapourrr:

That was the best information on this I've ever read. I'd noticed myself that how quickly a package gets to the sorting facility is the most important factor in how fast something arrives. Lately it seems like priority mail takes 4 days on average, with the occasional 5 day delivery and the occasional 3 day delivery... There have only been a few times that I've received a priority package in 2 days(clearnet included). 1st class mail is typically just as fast as priority, although sometimes it's faster and sometimes it's slower. But like you said, 1st class has always arrived within 5 days in my experience with shipping legal items. I haven't seen the tracking on that many priority packages so does anyone know if 5 days for priority happens regularly or is it more likely that that extra day(day 5) is due to the package not getting picked up from a blue box the day it was dropped?