Silk Road forums

Discussion => Silk Road discussion => Topic started by: Jack N Hoff on July 28, 2013, 07:29 pm

Title: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: Jack N Hoff on July 28, 2013, 07:29 pm
Bitcoin value on Silk Road = $98.31 USD
Bitcoin value on MtGox = $98.10 USD
Bitcoin value on btc-e = $89.40 USD
Bitcoin value on CampBX = $90.00 USD
Bitcoin value on BitStamp = $90.78  USD


Anyone have some light to shed on this? ???
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is bulling BTC value from
Post by: kennypowders on July 28, 2013, 07:47 pm
Remember that thread you had on 'getting boned by fees.'
You were wrong.

We're just getting boned.
Also, anyone else notice when your hedged payments are actually being released? Hmm.



Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: ChemCat on July 28, 2013, 08:18 pm
odd  ???
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: ananas_xpress on July 29, 2013, 11:03 am
I too would like to know this as I've been noticing it consistently higher than any of the markets.

My own personal theory is that is gives buyers more purchasing power for their bitcoin at the expense of vendors who are getting only a smaller BTC amount in return.
It would also mean SR stands to make more on commissions.

Actually what I really believe is that this is all made so complicated on purpose so everybody is clueless about how it works.
Some clarification on this in lay mans terms would be nice please, All I know is I have to raise prices or just peg in BTC as the $$ value of bitcoin here is way overinflated and not representative of any current market average  >:(

EDIT# Mt Gox should not be considered representative of the market price since they are not releasing $$ Funds right now so the price is way higher because of people buying coins there to sell on other markets just to use up the $$$ that are trapped in their accounts.
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: GotGas on July 29, 2013, 12:01 pm
Try pegging prices to BTC. Makes things so much simpler by using your 'own' exchange rate that you can update at your own will.
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: yunalesca on July 29, 2013, 12:55 pm
None of this really makes any sense to me.  I just buy BTC and then spend them as quickly as possible so they don't decrease in value before I can!
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: goblin on July 29, 2013, 01:15 pm
Actually what I really believe is that this is all made so complicated on purpose so everybody is clueless about how it works.
Agreed with this 100%. Does anyone else think vendors are getting screwed here?

Would raising prices be called for? I just don't want to scare off more buyers as I'm getting a truly miserable number of orders as it is!
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: PotatoConnoisseur on July 29, 2013, 01:15 pm
None of this really makes any sense to me.  I just buy BTC and then spend them as quickly as possible so they don't decrease in value before I can!

It's vendors getting fucked here. SR used to use MtGox weighted average but now it seems to lag after the most recent price on MtGox or something. This is bad for vendors because cashing out on MtGox is very difficult at the moment and all of the more liquid exchanges have a lower bitcoin value. So using the figures that Jack posted a vendor will get paid at 98.31 USD per Bitcoin then cash out at around 90 USD per Bitcoin.
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: hypnotick on July 29, 2013, 01:27 pm
If I remember correctly DPR said he polled multiple locations for the value so I think its some kind of formula that calculates the final value. Perhaps that formula needs some tweaking.

**update**
On blockchain the value is ~$100 right now
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: ananas_xpress on July 29, 2013, 02:31 pm


If I remember correctly DPR said he polled multiple locations for the value so I think its some kind of formula that calculates the final value. Perhaps that formula needs some tweaking.

**update**
On blockchain the value is ~$100 right now

Pity you cant sell bitcoin on blockchain.info however.

On every exchange that I can realistically sell BTC for $$ the price for 1BTC is $10 below what Silk Road says it's worth.
This is great however for customers who can now buy a coin for $91.04 on BTC-e then send it over to Silk road where it's worth ฿1 = $100.77 (Correct at time of writing)

It's like a 10% extra free sale for buyers right now with Vendors who price in $$ picking up the tab.

Quote
Try pegging prices to BTC. Makes things so much simpler by using your 'own' exchange rate that you can update at your own will.

Sure, I could do that but it would mean daily calculations and basically I moved over here from atlantis for features such as multi-currency after saving up the bond by selling there.
If I correctly price in BTC I'm now getting undercut by vendors unaware of how they are losing money thanks to the exchange rate.

At least on Atlantis I knew the figure is based on the MTGox rate which isn't perfect but it's clear, On SR I haven't got a clue
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: goldenone on July 29, 2013, 03:10 pm
Indeed, It looks like SR formula is MtGox Value (highest of all) + X%(X being beetween 1-2), resulting in a 8-10% overprice of any exchange that is not mtgox.com (which right now is not processing withdrawals of usd).
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: Thirty_Rox on July 29, 2013, 04:08 pm
EDIT# Mt Gox should not be considered representative of the market price since they are not releasing $$ Funds right now so the price is way higher because of people buying coins there to sell on other markets just to use up the $$$ that are trapped in their accounts.

Did Gox suspend USD withdrawal again? On July 4th they announced all withdrawals are resumed. As far as I know, this has not changed again.

 https://www.mtgox.com/press_release_20130704.html

Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: Jack N Hoff on July 29, 2013, 04:21 pm
**update**
On blockchain the value is ~$100 right now

Six hours after the thread was made...  The value on SR was like $102 at that time. ;D
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: ananas_xpress on July 29, 2013, 04:29 pm
EDIT# Mt Gox should not be considered representative of the market price since they are not releasing $$ Funds right now so the price is way higher because of people buying coins there to sell on other markets just to use up the $$$ that are trapped in their accounts.

Did Gox suspend USD withdrawal again? On July 4th they announced all withdrawals are resumed. As far as I know, this has not changed again.

 https://www.mtgox.com/press_release_20130704.html

Sorry "not releasing" is just a sign of my frustration with them, Officially they have started again but I've been  waiting a month at this stage with nothing.
I'm guessing they had a run on the bank  to make the problem even worse as everybody has lost faith in them now.

Basically Gox is in trouble. It is not processing fiat withdrawals fast enough so people are buying up bitcoins instead. This increased demand has pushed up the price of bitcoins on gox while depressing it everywhere else. Don't use gox if you want to buy bitcoins.
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: HEATFan on July 29, 2013, 05:05 pm
As a buyer, I am upset you are bringing this to their attention. Shh! ;)
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: SmokesHisBroccoli on July 29, 2013, 05:46 pm
I was under the assumption that the price at mt. gox determined the price on SR.  They're pretty close at least. 
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: ananas_xpress on July 30, 2013, 09:04 pm
I guess nobody on admin side is going to tell us anyway :/
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: Spiral Eyes on July 31, 2013, 03:31 am
I guess nobody on admin side is going to tell us anyway :/

As many times as I've seen this particular question asked, I've never seen anything close to an official answer.
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: eddiethegun on July 31, 2013, 05:55 am
Quote
UPDATE (07/02/2013 1700 UTC): Forgot to mention another change that's coming with this update.  Now that MtGox is losing market share, we'll be pulling from multiple markets to get the "official" exchange rate for pricing and hedging.  It will also be more closely weighted to the preset instead of equally weighting all prices over the past 24-hours.  This part is a bit of an experiment and we may revert back if there are any problems with it.

http://dkn255hz262ypmii.onion/index.php?topic=178647.msg1290689#msg1290689

Drop Support a ticket if there are problems.
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: Jack N Hoff on July 31, 2013, 06:06 am
Quote
UPDATE (07/02/2013 1700 UTC): Forgot to mention another change that's coming with this update.  Now that MtGox is losing market share, we'll be pulling from multiple markets to get the "official" exchange rate for pricing and hedging.  It will also be more closely weighted to the preset instead of equally weighting all prices over the past 24-hours.  This part is a bit of an experiment and we may revert back if there are any problems with it.

http://dkn255hz262ypmii.onion/index.php?topic=178647.msg1290689#msg1290689

Drop Support a ticket if there are problems.

The problem is that the value of BTC on SR has been hire than ANY known exchange.  I've seen it higher than the highest exchange which is MtGox.  So either they are adding value to BTC or taking it from some secret BTC markets that no one knows about where BTC is worth more than any of the known exchanges. :o
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: eddiethegun on July 31, 2013, 06:20 am
Quote
UPDATE (07/02/2013 1700 UTC): Forgot to mention another change that's coming with this update.  Now that MtGox is losing market share, we'll be pulling from multiple markets to get the "official" exchange rate for pricing and hedging.  It will also be more closely weighted to the preset instead of equally weighting all prices over the past 24-hours.  This part is a bit of an experiment and we may revert back if there are any problems with it.

http://dkn255hz262ypmii.onion/index.php?topic=178647.msg1290689#msg1290689

Drop Support a ticket if there are problems.

The problem is that the value of BTC on SR has been hire than ANY known exchange.  I've seen it higher than the highest exchange which is MtGox.  So either they are adding value to BTC or taking it from some secret BTC markets that no one knows about where BTC is worth more than any of the known exchanges. :o

Yeah it depends on the formula he's using. Presumably it's volume weighted by exchange. You've mentioned seeing it higher than Mt. Gox Last price, but I've been looking and I haven't seen it rise above the 3 hour high for Mt. Gox. Perhaps he's using something akin to 3 or 6-hour average, in which case it could often be above the last price.

Hard to say until DPR tells us the formula. I generally don't assume malice on his part though. He could always just raise the commissions. It's not like it makes any sense to make a few % by diddling the exchange rates.
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: WhiteShark on July 31, 2013, 06:29 am
This too is also a problem me and a fellow vendor were talking about. The BTC value appeared around $104 on SR while cavirtex (Canadian exchange) had it selling $88. At that rate I lose just under $50 an oz after shipping which is a large part of my profits.

It never used to be like that for me, but now it is becoming less and less worth it for me to be on SR. However sales are picking up, helping make up for the lower profits.

Would be nice if you could peg it to an exchange or a variety of options.
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: bluedev1 on July 31, 2013, 08:32 am
Don't forget that buying bitcoins includes a lot of fees, including transaction fees from exchanges, fog fees, etc..  So even if you think the buyer is getting 8-10% more purchasing power, they're actually not when all things are considered. 

Vendors, you guys are MAKING money without 25-30% income taxes, quit complaining :P
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: Thurgood Jenkins on July 31, 2013, 09:22 am
Quote
Don't forget that buying bitcoins includes a lot of fees, including transaction fees from exchanges, fog fees, etc..  So even if you think the buyer is getting 8-10% more purchasing power, they're actually not when all things are considered.

Vendors, you guys are MAKING money without 25-30% income taxes, quit complaining :P

Yeah, cause tumbling our coins, laundering money, and cashing out bitcoins is completely free for us :)
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: White 0ut on July 31, 2013, 09:26 am
Quote
Don't forget that buying bitcoins includes a lot of fees, including transaction fees from exchanges, fog fees, etc..  So even if you think the buyer is getting 8-10% more purchasing power, they're actually not when all things are considered.

Vendors, you guys are MAKING money without 25-30% income taxes, quit complaining :P

Yeah, cause tumbling our coins, laundering money, and cashing out bitcoins is completely free for us :)

This, goddamn I love when my vendor/ fellow vendors are knowledgeable enough to come in and offer proper comments...
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: bluedev1 on July 31, 2013, 09:33 am
I was kidding, guess it wasn't obvious enough. 

But my point remains about the buyers, they are actually getting a pretty square deal for their $.   They're not profiting from it. 
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: Wepromisetwenty on July 31, 2013, 11:28 am
Seems pointless to me. Surely in the long run it'll just crank up the prices of product on here to compensate. SR wins, everyone else loses
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: GotGas on July 31, 2013, 12:37 pm
I guess nobody on admin side is going to tell us anyway :/

As many times as I've seen this particular question asked, I've never seen anything close to an official answer.

Wouldn't expect one. It's probably for diversification. Imagine the formula was public knowledge = very easy to skew a heavily weighted market in a particular direction for personal gain.


I was kidding, guess it wasn't obvious enough. 

But my point remains about the buyers, they are actually getting a pretty square deal for their $.   They're not profiting from it.

Yeah the main source I know for buyers in AUD charges highest bid PLUS commission on top.
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: WhiteShark on July 31, 2013, 07:01 pm
Has anyone attempted to contact support regarding this issue?
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: FrancoBond on July 31, 2013, 07:03 pm
This has been a major problem for me.  With hedging, the lower coin value once withdrawn, withdraw and exchange commissions and fees, close to 20% of my sale is gone which is the vast majority of my profit margin. 

I've been continuing to plug away hoping that this changes soon.   However I will be forced to raise prices or simply not sell at all if this continues.

The higher coin rate is great for buyers but bad for sellers.   I'm keeping my fingers crossed that this gets sorted soon.,

Damn that sucks, but I hear you. You'll be missed by many if you do decide to stop :(
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: CanadianForger on August 01, 2013, 03:58 am
This is a huge problem for vendors, if I sell $4900 worth of a product and I'm given 45BTC from this sale at their current exchange rate of $107.00, realistically I'm only receiving $88 x 45BTC = $3960.00. Losing almost $1000 on a sale is really not an option.

I have personally put myself into vacation mode until this is sorted out, or I will have to start calculating myself and risking using unhedged BTC listings. I understand this is an awesome deal for customers, but us vendors cannot operate at this rate.

Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: eddiethegun on August 01, 2013, 06:05 am
This is a huge problem for vendors, if I sell $4900 worth of a product and I'm given 45BTC from this sale at their current exchange rate of $107.00, realistically I'm only receiving $88 x 45BTC = $3960.00. Losing almost $1000 on a sale is really not an option.

I have personally put myself into vacation mode until this is sorted out, or I will have to start calculating myself and risking using unhedged BTC listings. I understand this is an awesome deal for customers, but us vendors cannot operate at this rate.

Don't be ridiculous. The difference isn't $19.

Current SR rate: $105.96
Mt Gox: $105.14
bitstamp: $97.6
btc-e: $95.53
campbx: $97.5

If you sell on Mt. Gox (still the largest exchange by volume) that's 0.77%
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: CanadianForger on August 01, 2013, 06:17 am
This is a huge problem for vendors, if I sell $4900 worth of a product and I'm given 45BTC from this sale at their current exchange rate of $107.00, realistically I'm only receiving $88 x 45BTC = $3960.00. Losing almost $1000 on a sale is really not an option.

I have personally put myself into vacation mode until this is sorted out, or I will have to start calculating myself and risking using unhedged BTC listings. I understand this is an awesome deal for customers, but us vendors cannot operate at this rate.

My apologies I thought the exchange rate was still wildly off on the other exchanges, which it was at one point. But let's be honest no one is selling on Gox since you can't withdraw USD.
Don't be ridiculous. The difference isn't $19.

Current SR rate: $105.96
Mt Gox: $105.14
bitstamp: $97.6
btc-e: $95.53
campbx: $97.5

If you sell on Mt. Gox (still the largest exchange by volume) that's 0.77%
Title: Re: I can't fingure out what markets Silk Road is pulling BTC value from
Post by: BlueGiraffe on August 01, 2013, 02:52 pm
This is a huge problem for vendors, if I sell $4900 worth of a product and I'm given 45BTC from this sale at their current exchange rate of $107.00, realistically I'm only receiving $88 x 45BTC = $3960.00. Losing almost $1000 on a sale is really not an option.

I have personally put myself into vacation mode until this is sorted out, or I will have to start calculating myself and risking using unhedged BTC listings. I understand this is an awesome deal for customers, but us vendors cannot operate at this rate.

Don't be ridiculous. The difference isn't $19.

Current SR rate: $105.96
Mt Gox: $105.14
bitstamp: $97.6
btc-e: $95.53
campbx: $97.5

If you sell on Mt. Gox (still the largest exchange by volume) that's 0.77%

That's the point, you can't sell on gox right now.  Well you can, you just can't withdraw.  They have been claiming for about 5-6 weeks that they are working on a new withdrawal system and are backlogged.  As a result, every other exchange is 8-12%  below them. 

So right now you can buy coins at $95-$97 and get nearly $106 on SR.  That is FANTASTIC if you're a buyer.  However SR is gonna pay you btc at the rate 106 as a seller for what that buyer just paid $95 for.   Then since gox isn't an option right now, you have to cash out at $95-$97.

That's a pretty big loss(8-12%).  If you factor in hedging (4%), and and the many other fees depending on your withdrawal method (2-4%).  It can quickly add up to nearly 20% 

I'm used to paying about 7% to 8% for my withdrawal method + hedging as a cost of doing business.    I'm considering going unhedged again but lost my ass before when there was a crash...

I'm really crossing my finger that either gox gets their act sorted out and all the exchanges level out again.  Or that SR figures out a new method for calculating their rate.

^ This ^

This is exactly the point. Gox is not currently a viable option for cashing out, and has not been so for about 2 months now. They simply are not processing fiat withdrawals in any meaningful way. So any vendor wanting actual fiat money has to use one of the other exchanges.

Specifically it is also clear that the SR rate is NOT currently an aggregate of the other major exchanges (weighted by volume or otherwise). In fact the SR rate seems to be consistently just above the MtGox rate. As the other exchanges are trailing MtGox by about 8-10% it is to that degree that vendors's earnings are being discounted.

Not cool or workable at all...

BG