Silk Road forums
Discussion => Philosophy, Economics and Justice => Topic started by: PrincessHIGH on October 12, 2012, 11:19 pm
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(I wasn't sure whether to put this on the 'Off Topic' discussion board or here, but considering this topic encompasses both economics and law, I felt this is the most appropriate place, moderators please feel free to move it, if you feel it is inappropriately placed here).
If anybody has pondered the answer to this question I recommend you visit the UNODC (United Nations Department Of Drugs And Crime) website for the official figures (clearwebalert) http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/data-and-analysis/WDR-2012.html
The annual UNODC reports provide a detailed country by country analysis of cultivation and production levels for various illegal drugs around the world, such as cocaine, cannabis, heroin, opiates, amphetamines etc. You'll also find reports on the recorded seizure rates around the world, which includes lab raids. It appears the stats most often quoted are those calculating the amount of the particular drug known to be produced vs. the amounts seized by officials.If you are is interested in viewing the exact figures, the 2012 Report is available from the UNODC website now.
According to the seizure reports on the website only 10% of illegal substances are seized by officials. To put a conservative price tag on it, for example, in the UK alone it costs roughly £380 million to reduce the supply of drugs, plus another £367 million (totaling a whopping £747 million) to reduce 'drug related' crime annually. Shocking but true!
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That 10% can't be too accurate, in order to get an accurate number they need to know about ALL the drugs being produced. They can estimate based on what they intercept and what appears on the street but that's just an educated guess. Especially for methamphetamine, which many users are now making small batches of for personal use, its very hard to track drug usage when the drug is produced and consumed behind the same closed doors. Then you have the thousands of people that grow their own weed or opium for personal use. I think the real number is under 5%.
Don't forget about diverted prescription drugs, pill mills, and people who just make up medical conditions to score drugs.
Its basically impossible to get a reliable number.
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The truth is nobody knows for certain. But I'm positive it's nowhere near as high a 10%. I'd imagine it's more likely to be less than 1%.
I don't know about the drugs passing through the UK boarders, but when they are on the 'streets' the police really are fighting a losing battle.
Of all the drugs I've bought over the years, I calculate the police have seized 0.0006% of them (touch wood).
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Your both correct, have amended accordingly, I meant according to the reports, the truth is that we do not know, and we never will. Interesting to see the very steep decline in Ecstasy seizures (clearwebalert) http://www.unodc.org/unodc/secured/wdr/Graphs_trends_world_seizures.pdf Any thoughts on what's causing it, declining popularity, or stealthier production and shipping methods?
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It's probably nearer the 1% mark.
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The percentage is exactly what the cartels tell the officials they can seize.
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The percentage is exactly what the cartels tell the officials they can seize.
HOW TRUE!