Silk Road forums

Discussion => Shipping => Topic started by: moreoranges on December 13, 2012, 06:45 am

Title: Question For Experienced Buyers
Post by: moreoranges on December 13, 2012, 06:45 am
Overall, how common would you say it is for a package to be seized?

Like, 1 in 5? 1 in 10? Is it something that happens very frequently, and are there well known ways to counter it?

(complete newbie here)
Title: Re: Question For Experienced Buyers
Post by: firehawk on December 13, 2012, 07:07 am
There was a good statistics thread conducted by a member on here (I forgot his username and can't find it at the moment) that suggests that the success rate on SR in general is around 95%, or only 1 in 20 orders not getting through. The 5% is made up of lost in the mail, wrong address, dog ate it, customs intercepts, and scamming from both ends (didn't send it / pretended not to receive it).

Have a look at this thread to find the answers to some of the other questions I'm sure you have:

dkn255hz262ypmii.onion/index.php?topic=92189.0
Title: Re: Question For Experienced Buyers
Post by: monrovia on December 13, 2012, 07:12 am
If you are getting small shit, your chances of getting caught are way WAAYY less than 1 in 10. Can you imagine if 1 out of every 5 or 10 packages were seized? :o I don't think the site would last very long. I bet it's more like 1 in 1,000 or more. I wouldn't call myself experienced though, but I think I've had 8 small transactions go almost perfectly.
Title: Re: Question For Experienced Buyers
Post by: fredflintstone on December 13, 2012, 07:16 am
There is so many variables in a question like this it is hard to answer

You got types of products, type of service used, vendor experience, vendor packing methods, originating country, domestic/international etc

Vendor quality varies greatly on this issue. You can have a situation like F16 where he loses 30-40 packages on their own and then vendors like me ( not to brag, I just know my stats for certain ) who have 60-65 packages without losing one.

Title: Re: Question For Experienced Buyers
Post by: eetandern on December 13, 2012, 01:34 pm
There was a good statistics thread conducted by a member on here (I forgot his username and can't find it at the moment) that suggests that the success rate on SR in general is around 95%, or only 1 in 20 orders not getting through. The 5% is made up of lost in the mail, wrong address, dog ate it, customs intercepts, and scamming from both ends (didn't send it / pretended not to receive it).
I think you are thinking of Pine. I thought she came up with a number closer to 97% sucessful but I might be wrong.

my buyer stats:
Total transactions: 63
Total spent: $26557.92
Refund rate: 4.04%
Auto-finalize rate: 0%
Member for: 1 year

I have not had any packages go missing. I'd say at least 25 of my transactions were for digital goods.  I have ordered from many countries, including several times from the feared Nederlanden, without any problems. I think if you only ordered from domestic vendors with 99% or 100%  positive feedback and 300+ transactions (assuming no mistakes on your end) you could go a very long time without loosing a package, let alone seized.  That being said, you have to assume every package will be seized and feds will be kicking in your door! murphy is always right...
Title: Re: Question For Experienced Buyers
Post by: DMTisinME on December 13, 2012, 05:00 pm
^^^Agreed. If you only used domestic vendors that are packaging perfectionists, then chances of success are 99.99%. I think that more international orders are lost or intercepted. Also depends on the item. For example, LSD on blotters is likely to never be detected.
Title: Re: Question For Experienced Buyers
Post by: bigndn on December 13, 2012, 05:55 pm
No packages go missing for honest people usually. If it does go missing it is usually a case of you got scammed. I never ever had but one or two packs missing and it was for an International shipment and a scammer. So the best thing to do is to make sure your vender uses stealth packaging and tracking. Dont buy from a dumbass thats just vacuum sealing it and throwing it in an envelope because thats the idiots that will get the USPS alerted to your activity. Make sure they are using stealth when shipping and you should never have a problem. That being said I had a couple dumbasses mail shit that had holes in it and even smelled. Thats the idiots to stay away from. Some times a 2-3 day package can take 15 days this time of year. Main thing is be careful, trust the vender and BE PATIENT! It will arrive. I have seen packages go 21 days first class. Most of the time if you dont get the package you are getting screwed, not to say they do lose some.
Title: Re: Question For Experienced Buyers
Post by: RKL on December 13, 2012, 09:33 pm
good info,i agree a lot depends on product and amount...plus vendor..theres a reason they have great reputations,
Title: Re: Question For Experienced Buyers
Post by: NorCalKing on December 13, 2012, 10:29 pm
No packages go missing for honest people usually. If it does go missing it is usually a case of you got scammed. I never ever had but one or two packs missing and it was for an International shipment and a scammer. So the best thing to do is to make sure your vender uses stealth packaging and tracking. Dont buy from a dumbass thats just vacuum sealing it and throwing it in an envelope because thats the idiots that will get the USPS alerted to your activity. Make sure they are using stealth when shipping and you should never have a problem. That being said I had a couple dumbasses mail shit that had holes in it and even smelled. Thats the idiots to stay away from. Some times a 2-3 day package can take 15 days this time of year. Main thing is be careful, trust the vender and BE PATIENT! It will arrive. I have seen packages go 21 days first class. Most of the time if you dont get the package you are getting screwed, not to say they do lose some.

In keeping with the thought in the beginning of the post, if there weren't DCN's the # would jump through the roof! 
We have not yet found the USPS to actually be at fault for not delivering or losing a package in over 2500 packages.  If the customer will give the same info to the vendor to put on their package that is on their utility bills, we haven't lost one package that way!  However when people particularly n00bs decide that it would be smarter to start giving other info other than what we ask for, the delivery rate goes down to between 94% - 97%.  So we changed our policy to make sure that customers had at least 5 + deliveries, & we've gone back up to 100%!   So the moral of the story is, buy from a reputable vendor, & if you decide to ud=se a name other than what comes on your utility bill, make sure that you have been receiving mail in the secondary name & parcels as well for several months before you try giving a bogus name to a vendor for your packages.


NCK
Title: Re: Question For Experienced Buyers
Post by: Theaides on December 14, 2012, 03:18 am
Well if you keep it domestic, stick to personal amounts or products that are easy to get through the post (LSD, etc), honestly I've made like 33 orders in my 6 months on here and the only packages that never made it, 1 was a scammer, 1 guy got busted and never ended up packing up my order.

My largest order was like 30g of molly from the NL (yeah sounds sketch as fuck, but the vendor is really amazing at stealth, if you ever want the best molly in the world go with Cloudsurfer, no questions, it takes a few weeks though.  He's literally the only international vendor i'd trust for a larger order.

But from general polling and statistics you're more likely to die in a plane crash than have your order seized (speaking domestic only orders) unless you're in Oz or something.  Even less likely to get in trouble even if they do seize it, assuming you stick to small amounts.  In those cases all that is likely to happen is your drugs would be destroyed, or you might get a letter telling you to thop it.

Title: Re: Question For Experienced Buyers
Post by: Moon Fried on December 14, 2012, 03:23 am
Out of 37 transactions, only one product didn't arrive, and I don't think it was seized - the vendor was acting a little strange at the time. Got a refund anyway, absolutely no communication though.