Silk Road forums
Discussion => Silk Road discussion => Topic started by: eddiethegun on December 13, 2012, 12:50 am
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Just want to post a quick link to SR7 Instant Win - the Silk Road's first and only instant win game.
Each ticket has a 1 in 16 chance at winning 2BTC. And we already paid out one winner yesterday (the first customer -- which means either I totally screwed up in the maths or I personally have a 15 of 16 chance of having shit luck).
The win is instantly verifiable and cannot be cheated. Take a look at the listing:
http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion/silkroad/item/691fd1b781
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Very cool NEW idea Eddie!
I'll be watching this one closely!
:)
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Very clever! +1, very good idea, simple, and easy!
How on earth did you come up with the idea??
BRILLIANT!
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Totally agree on the brilliance of this, nicely done!
I predict a lot of copycats, but hey, just consider it flattery..
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I was thinking of starting something similar. But now that vendor accounts are so expensive I guess that's out the door now. Lol
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Thanks guys.
All the lotto listings just seemed scammy (not saying they're scams, but if you can't verify that a winner really exists...).
This method takes care of a few problems:
Instant results - who wants to wait weeks for 50 tickets to sell?
Random
Verifiable odds
Can go to dispute resolution if I don't pay a winner -- The transaction # is visible to SR admins, so is any BTC transfer I make in-system. So buyers can be assured they'll get payed without having to trust me.
Because after all isn't that what this whole game (SR, that is) is premised upon? It works because we don't HAVE to trust each other. I think this Instant Win lotto fits in nicely :)
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Good idea buddy :)
Matrix 8)
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God fucking dammit... I got an 8 :D
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DING DING DING!
We got another winner!
tx# c400fc8c67
user: thankyoufortherice
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I am SOOOO tempted to not only play, but create my own too ;)
I'll wait at least until after the new year. Too cool not to!
You are the man Eddie!
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DING DING DING!
Another winner!
tx #: 0b00ac487
user: tA5fomh
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Definitely gonna bookmark this. I can't think of a better way to spend my left over coin!
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We got another winner!
tx #: 775a121c87
user: johnmoe
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And another winner (damn you, statistical variance!):
tx #: 1dabf537f7
user: scatter
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WOOHOO I won :)
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Two more winners today:
939614a3f7 johnmoe
ec71a3f087 icecoolmadness
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Check out a much better lotto here.
50% chance to win double your money.
All info is contained in listing.
Verify your win instantly!
http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion/silkroad/item/712a5bb0d5
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Check out a much better lotto here.
50% chance to win double your money.
All info is contained in listing.
Verify your win instantly!
http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion/silkroad/item/712a5bb0d5
How is a $2 payout on a $1.19 ticket doubling anything?
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Great lotto, absolutely brilliant idea!
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Another lucky bastard:
170a9c95b7 icecoolmadness
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Check out a much better lotto here.
50% chance to win double your money.
All info is contained in listing.
Verify your win instantly!
http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion/silkroad/item/712a5bb0d5
How is a $2 payout on a $1.19 ticket doubling anything?
You really shouldn't have came into my thread talking shit.
Your lotto claims to pay 1/16 ill give you that even though its much lower.
at $2.42 a ticket you'd have to play 16 times to win.
By then you will have spent 38.72.
That's just a hair of 69% ROI.
To win my lottery you would have to play twice. Real 50% chance of winning.
Mine costs 1.16.
1.16 2 times to win is 2.32
You will win 2 dollars.
Thats an 86% return on investment.
My lottery is mathematically over 200% better than yours.
That is if someone started with 10 dollars they would lose to 0 in your lottery over twice as fast on average. Not to mention your lottery has a much higher variance 1/16 odds at winning.
Ill remind the people
Best SR lottery.
http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion/silkroad/item/712a5bb0d5
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Check out a much better lotto here.
50% chance to win double your money.
All info is contained in listing.
Verify your win instantly!
http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion/silkroad/item/712a5bb0d5
How is a $2 payout on a $1.19 ticket doubling anything?
You really shouldn't have came into my thread talking shit.
Your lotto claims to pay 1/16 ill give you that even though its much lower.
at $2.42 a ticket you'd have to play 16 times to win.
By then you will have spent 38.72.
That's just a hair of 69% ROI.
To win my lottery you would have to play twice. Real 50% chance of winning.
Mine costs 1.16.
1.16 2 times to win is 2.32
You will win 2 dollars.
That's an 86% return on investment.
My lottery is mathematically over 200% better than yours.
That is if someone started with 10 dollars they would lose to 0 in your lottery over twice as fast on average. Not to mention your lottery has a much higher variance 1/16 odds at winning.
Ill remind the people
Best SR lottery.
http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion/silkroad/item/712a5bb0d5
My lotto does not claim to pay 1/16. The odds of winning are 1 in 16. The payout is 2BTC. The EV fluctuates with the exchange rate.
How do you claim double payouts when you don't pay double?
2$ is not double $1.19 in any universe.
Nor do you have 50/50 odds since you exclude all transaction #s that do not have two 0-9 digits.
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Ok. I guess the until new years resolution is off...
Eddie your lotto is far better IMO.
A bit more risk a bit more reward!
Lotto wars is ON!
;D
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LOL? It doesn't pay 1 out of 16 you can just win 1 out of 16? You do realize that's the same exact thing right. It doesn't really matter regardless it's clear you know nothing about mathematics.
I've yet to see a transaction # that didn't have at least 3 digits and if you had half a brain you would know that the first digit in mine is irrelevant since every winning number ends in an odd number.
In the rare or (impossible?) case there is no numbers in the transaction # the player would be refunded.
Again how do you dispute the claims that your lottery has a 69% roi and mine has an 86% roi. What would we need to see the bitcoin market go up too in order for your lottery to pay as well as mine?
Furthermore why is it relevant what I say to grab attention? Have you ever heard or advertisement? Is everything what it seems at first look? NO.
Is my lottery completely explained in the listing? Does it pay better than yours? Does it pay more often than yours? Does the person running it have a basic understanding of third grade mathematics? Yes
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Ok. I guess the until new years resolution is off...
Eddie your lotto is far better IMO.
A bit more risk a bit more reward!
Lotto wars is ON!
;D
No technically its a far worse reward. Do you guys want me to put tutoring lessons up on SR. I'll make them private so no one knows you bought them. The math will be Intro to third grade:Basic Probability.
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Ok. I guess the until new years resolution is off...
Eddie your lotto is far better IMO.
A bit more risk a bit more reward!
Lotto wars is ON!
;D
Exactly. Eddies lotto just has more risk but more reward.
I've spent $15 on Eddie's lotto so far and haven't won..yet.
And I've spent about $20 on Noopepts and won about $15.
So neither of these lotto's is doin my wallet any good :)
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Speaking of:
bec41c1357 MHAVEN
just won.
PM me your SR username MrBing, I'll send you a free play :D
(Merry Christmas!)
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"You really shouldn't have came into my thread talking shit."
^Came into another vendors thread talking shit
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Speaking of:
bec41c1357 MHAVEN
just won.
PM me your SR username MrBing, I'll send you a free play :D
(Merry Christmas!)
Awesome thanks. Merry Christmas to you as well.
Your lotto is incredibly addicting, but in a good way lol :)
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i just lost a lot of money dubing up ..
fml... im never good at this shit
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Eddie's lotto is far better imo :)
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Eddie's lotto is far better imo :)
Far better if you win, I agree. lol
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Ok. I guess the until new years resolution is off...
Eddie your lotto is far better IMO.
A bit more risk a bit more reward!
Lotto wars is ON!
;D
No technically its a far worse reward. Do you guys want me to put tutoring lessons up on SR. I'll make them private so no one knows you bought them. The math will be Intro to third grade:Basic Probability.
So what's the probability of getting a transaction with no numbers? That's where your lotto runs different from eddies. If a buyer on your game comes in with 1 or 0 numbers for the transaction ID(not impossible) they never had a chance to win. That should either be an auto-refund, if you want your claimed statistics to be accurate, or... you need to change your numbers.
Or maybe you already accounted for that? Math-friendly people, anyone want to check?
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I really suck at math and I'm wondering why Eddies is 1/16 odds? Wouldn't the odds be 1/9?
I think I remember why I hate math lol.
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I really suck at math and I'm wondering why Eddies is 1/16 odds? Wouldn't the odds be 1/9?
I think I remember why I hate math lol.
Because you have a chance of getting a letter a-f.
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I really suck at math and I'm wondering why Eddies is 1/16 odds? Wouldn't the odds be 1/9?
I think I remember why I hate math lol.
Because you have a chance of getting a letter a-f.
Yup, SR's transaction IDs are hexadecimal numbers so the odds of a particular digit being seven are 1:16 :)
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I really suck at math and I'm wondering why Eddies is 1/16 odds? Wouldn't the odds be 1/9?
I think I remember why I hate math lol.
Because you have a chance of getting a letter a-f.
Yup, SR's transaction IDs are hexadecimal numbers so the odds of a particular digit being seven are 1:16 :)
Which is something Noopept didn't factor into his "return on investment" math, where he was berating eddie about how his lottery was so much better... that dude is a dick.
Also, I lost eddie's game. :(
I figured a 1:16 chance for a christmas miracle was better than praying for it... sadly, no such luck.
Still, cheers to eddie for coming up with the fairer lottery and not being a douchebag unlike the other guy. That's the reason I took my chances with eddie. :)
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Like I said in a previous post if there was no numbers (I have yet to see less than 4 in a transaction ID) the player would receive a full refund.
If you want to play his lottery because you like him more that's fine. If you like money you can play mine.
I only came into Eddies thread after he came into mine insulting me calling me out saying I was lying about my odds ect. So I thought I'd come into his thread and show him the truth.
I've still yet to see him justify his odds. Still yet to see him prove without a reasonable doubt that the numbers occurring is just as likely as the letter. You see for all we know letter could appear more often than numbers so that would completely ruin his odds. His odds are virtually unverifiable unless someone from SR can comment that letters are equally as likely as numbers.
My odds on the other hand are completely verifiable. Completely trust able and sensible. All you do is look at the last number of your transaction if its odd you win if its not you don't. Simple, easy, provable.
Even if I didn't pay someone who didn't receive a number want to know the likely hood of that happening?
There are 10 characters in a transaction number.
They consist of the digits 0-9 and the letters a-f
All things constant there is each number a 6/16 chance of a letter being picked.
Over 10 characters the chance of them all being letters is .00005499 in 1. or completely negligible.
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Like I said in a previous post if there was no numbers (I have yet to see less than 4 in a transaction ID) the player would receive a full refund.
If you want to play his lottery because you like him more that's fine. If you like money you can play mine.
I only came into Eddies thread after he came into mine insulting me calling me out saying I was lying about my odds ect. So I thought I'd come into his thread and show him the truth.
I've still yet to see him justify his odds. Still yet to see him prove without a reasonable doubt that the numbers occurring is just as likely as the letter. You see for all we know letter could appear more often than numbers so that would completely ruin his odds. His odds are virtually unverifiable unless someone from SR can comment that letters are equally as likely as numbers.
My odds on the other hand are completely verifiable. Completely trust able and sensible. All you do is look at the last number of your transaction if its odd you win if its not you don't. Simple, easy, provable.
Even if I didn't pay someone who didn't receive a number want to know the likely hood of that happening?
There are 10 characters in a transaction number.
They consist of the digits 0-9 and the letters a-f
All things constant there is each number a 6/16 chance of a letter being picked.
Over 10 characters the chance of them all being letters is .00005499 in 1. or completely negligible.
What's to say that odd numbers are as likely as even? If I look at my account history, I have a strong bias toward even numbers. Your odds are only as verifiable as his. You can't prove that 1/3/5/7/9 are of equal likelihood as 0/2/4/6/8 because we don't know by what method or logic SR converts transaction IDs into hex. Numerically and with a truly random system then yes, your numbers are completely verifiable. The same is true of eddie's. Your system is only as verifiable as eddie's system. To say anything else is bullshit.
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Also, If I came off rude to anyone I apologize. I have nothing against anyone here. I take offense when someone comes into my thread trying to undermine my completely legit listing as Eddie did. He tried to undermine my listing when in fact his is exactly what he was accusing me of. I didn't even originally know why he was in my thread until I saw he ran a similar listing. That's when I thought I'd come in and present some factual evidence.
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Like I said in a previous post if there was no numbers (I have yet to see less than 4 in a transaction ID) the player would receive a full refund.
If you want to play his lottery because you like him more that's fine. If you like money you can play mine.
I only came into Eddies thread after he came into mine insulting me calling me out saying I was lying about my odds ect. So I thought I'd come into his thread and show him the truth.
I've still yet to see him justify his odds. Still yet to see him prove without a reasonable doubt that the numbers occurring is just as likely as the letter. You see for all we know letter could appear more often than numbers so that would completely ruin his odds. His odds are virtually unverifiable unless someone from SR can comment that letters are equally as likely as numbers.
My odds on the other hand are completely verifiable. Completely trust able and sensible. All you do is look at the last number of your transaction if its odd you win if its not you don't. Simple, easy, provable.
Even if I didn't pay someone who didn't receive a number want to know the likely hood of that happening?
There are 10 characters in a transaction number.
They consist of the digits 0-9 and the letters a-f
All things constant there is each number a 6/16 chance of a letter being picked.
Over 10 characters the chance of them all being letters is .00005499 in 1. or completely negligible.
What's to say that odd numbers are as likely as even? If I look at my account history, I have a strong bias toward even numbers. Your odds are only as verifiable as his. You can't prove that 1/3/5/7/9 are of equal likelihood as 0/2/4/6/8 because we don't know by what method or logic SR converts transaction IDs into hex. Numerically and with a truly random system then yes, your numbers are completely verifiable. The same is true of eddie's. Your system is only as verifiable as eddie's system. To say anything else is bullshit.
You do raise a good point. Though I honestly in my heart don't believe that there is any more likelihood of a "2" compared to a "b" say. I was conceding that it is far more likely there is an even chance of numbers as opposed to letters. Also sample size is a huge issue here.
In the end like I pointed to in previous posts we can assume whatever we want but at the end of the day my odds are far better than his and even if this possibility of a character being chosen is different to skew someones odds either mine or his in our favor mine will still be better. Anyone can look and see that.
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Like I said in a previous post if there was no numbers (I have yet to see less than 4 in a transaction ID) the player would receive a full refund.
If you want to play his lottery because you like him more that's fine. If you like money you can play mine.
I only came into Eddies thread after he came into mine insulting me calling me out saying I was lying about my odds ect. So I thought I'd come into his thread and show him the truth.
I've still yet to see him justify his odds. Still yet to see him prove without a reasonable doubt that the numbers occurring is just as likely as the letter. You see for all we know letter could appear more often than numbers so that would completely ruin his odds. His odds are virtually unverifiable unless someone from SR can comment that letters are equally as likely as numbers.
My odds on the other hand are completely verifiable. Completely trust able and sensible. All you do is look at the last number of your transaction if its odd you win if its not you don't. Simple, easy, provable.
Even if I didn't pay someone who didn't receive a number want to know the likely hood of that happening?
There are 10 characters in a transaction number.
They consist of the digits 0-9 and the letters a-f
All things constant there is each number a 6/16 chance of a letter being picked.
Over 10 characters the chance of them all being letters is .00005499 in 1. or completely negligible.
What's to say that odd numbers are as likely as even? If I look at my account history, I have a strong bias toward even numbers. Your odds are only as verifiable as his. You can't prove that 1/3/5/7/9 are of equal likelihood as 0/2/4/6/8 because we don't know by what method or logic SR converts transaction IDs into hex. Numerically and with a truly random system then yes, your numbers are completely verifiable. The same is true of eddie's. Your system is only as verifiable as eddie's system. To say anything else is bullshit.
You do raise a good point. Though I honestly in my heart don't believe that there is any more likelihood of a "2" compared to a "b" say. I was conceding that it is far more likely there is an even chance of numbers as opposed to letters. Also sample size is a huge issue here.
In the end like I pointed to in previous posts we can assume whatever we want but at the end of the day my odds are far better than his and even if this possibility of a character being chosen is different to skew someones odds either mine or his in our favor mine will still be better. Anyone can look and see that.
You raised your own good point, too.
Eddiethegun, this thread is in the wrong section. You should ask a mod to move it.
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I've still yet to see him justify his odds. Still yet to see him prove without a reasonable doubt that the numbers occurring is just as likely as the letter. You see for all we know letter could appear more often than numbers so that would completely ruin his odds. His odds are virtually unverifiable unless someone from SR can comment that letters are equally as likely as numbers.
The transaction id is a hashed value. All hash functions, by definition, demonstrate uniformity in the distribution of their values -- that is, all outputs across the range of possible values are equally probable. There is no bias and, in the long run, 7 should come up about as frequently as 5 or 4 or a through f.
Hashes actually make a pretty good (P)RNG for our purposes.
Apologies, noopept, if this turned into a pissing match. This place is big enough for all of us.
Eddiethegun, this thread is in the wrong section. You should ask a mod to move it.
Will do. Do we have any mods anymore?
BTW:
23-Dec-12 73e74cd597 XxWINxX94x23
24-Dec-12 63f70a4fa7 epifunk
win win :D
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I've still yet to see him justify his odds. Still yet to see him prove without a reasonable doubt that the numbers occurring is just as likely as the letter. You see for all we know letter could appear more often than numbers so that would completely ruin his odds. His odds are virtually unverifiable unless someone from SR can comment that letters are equally as likely as numbers.
The transaction id is a hashed value. All hash functions, by definition, demonstrate uniformity in the distribution of their values -- that is, all outputs across the range of possible values are equally probable. There is no bias and, in the long run, 7 should come up about as frequently as 5 or 4 or a through f.
Hashes actually make a pretty good (P)RNG for our purposes.
Apologies, noopept, if this turned into a pissing match. This place is big enough for all of us.
Eddiethegun, this thread is in the wrong section. You should ask a mod to move it.
Will do. Do we have any mods anymore?
BTW:
23-Dec-12 73e74cd597 XxWINxX94x23
24-Dec-12 63f70a4fa7 epifunk
win win :D
I'm still sad that you don't have a 25-Dec-15 <id> BlarghRawr *6 to announce. :(
I could have used a christmas present from Lady Luck.
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Anyways, you've won the battle for today someone won over 1k from me so I have to take my listing down until I can add BTC and pay them. Wasn't anticipating anyone betting nearly that much.
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Great concept.
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^ 1k :o crazy... i had a hard time betting the .18 btc for this
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Gotta cap the bets. They'll martingale the shit of you otherwise.
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I'm a weener i'm a weener! how does this work anyway. got the last digit to be 7 after 4 attempts. Now i just wait?
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You should have received both your payouts.
Lucky bastards are bankrupting me.
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You should have received both your payouts.
Lucky bastards are bankrupting me.
I got em man ha. And watch those are my last 2 wins. its how my luck runs. rest of proceeds go directly to you haha