Silk Road forums

Discussion => Silk Road discussion => Topic started by: erlknernjdefdefpo1 on May 03, 2013, 12:29 pm

Title: When it rains it pours - what the hell is going on
Post by: erlknernjdefdefpo1 on May 03, 2013, 12:29 pm
First SR having major DDoS issues, Bitcoin-Central being hacked and now MTGox facing lawsuits ( ** warning CLEARWEB  : http://www.scribd.com/doc/139196333/Coinlab-v-Mt-Gox **).

BTC price going down and network hash rate going up (if you mine then your returns are falling), imagine when BLF start shipping the ASIC's out in volume - GPU and FPGA mines are screwed on three fronts.

I've got orders marked in transit now for 12 days plus and only half have arrived.

Getting BTC in the UK is tricky at best, and I've found roughly every 2 months I have to find a new source because they stop UK bank transfers or disappear.

I love the road and won't be tempted by any of the other markets out there whilst DPR (legend BTW!) is still around, but it all seems a little coincidental to me.

Am I paranoid or are others seeing odd things with both the BTC market and SR?

Thoughts anyone?
Title: Re: When it rains it pours - what the hell is going on
Post by: CHROOT on May 03, 2013, 12:42 pm
imagine when BLF start shipping the ASIC's out in volume - GPU and FPGA mines are screwed on three fronts.

They're already starting to trickle out, and once the ASIC floodgates open, mining goes pro. Ballers only from then on.

I think most people are chalking up the recent btc weakness to the recent turmoil surrounding SR/tormail/mtgox uptime.
Title: Re: When it rains it pours - what the hell is going on
Post by: erlknernjdefdefpo1 on May 03, 2013, 01:09 pm
I think the BLF Jally's are shipping out in the 10's daily and none of the bigger rigs are yet due to power issues IIRC. The avalon units had some impact and I think tranch 3 is due soon too.

What I don't get though is that some of the GPU rigs that are currently in use aren't covering the cost of the electric let alone the initial hardware costs - so they're effectively speculating on BTC rising again.

The speculators in turn have historically bought BTC when the market drops by between 10 and 30% within a week, but the price has dropped by that amount in the last week (or more!) and yet the demand for coin hasn't increased in line with historical market moves.

The market spread has also increased somewhat which I find economically interesting and leads me to think that much more of the BTC valuation is due to SR users / vendors and the micro economy here.

Just take a look at the fast stochastic metric it's dropped below 20 today which should have triggered a volume spike and inherent price rise (premium) - but hasn't.

The chaikin money flow has almost reached 0 so buying pressure is lower - the opposite of what should be happening.

Personally I'm not a speculator and only convert fiat into BTC when I want to place an order, so the effects on us small consumers aren't that great. HOWEVER the effect of the market can have huge impact on Vendors, Speculators and DPR's business model (and the aspirational plans of other darkweb sites).

There's something fishy going on is all I'm sayin.

Erl.

** disclaimer**

I'm no economist  - the opinions expressed here should be thought of as the drug addled ramblings of a fool with too much time and too little sleep :)


Title: Re: When it rains it pours - what the hell is going on
Post by: CHROOT on May 03, 2013, 01:21 pm

There's something fishy going on is all I'm sayin.


For vendors this has been a trying few weeks, full of uncertainty, and after lots of coins being locked up in SR, I just think some got a little spooked and decided to sell coins.

The days of stable, constantly rising prices are over, we just have to adjust to the new normal of bitcoin volatility. Not every big drop has to be "the end" or some big government takedown. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
Title: Re: When it rains it pours - what the hell is going on
Post by: erlknernjdefdefpo1 on May 03, 2013, 01:27 pm
It's always interesting when social & political trends funk with pure economic ones.

And I think you're right btw ;)
Title: Re: When it rains it pours - what the hell is going on
Post by: come_flywithme on May 03, 2013, 01:37 pm
What has angered me is YET AGAIN due to SR randomly going offline AGAIN I have lost £60 in the past 12 hours due to btc rates droppings and being unable to get onto the site to transfer...YET AGAIN.

I appreciate there are some issues with SR at the moment,but with respect it's pretty fucking out of order I keep having to lose money solely because the site is about as reliable as a chocolate teapot right now.I personally think reimbursement of the funds should be thought about here,as I am sure it wont be only me in this boat and considering its not our problem that we cant get onto the site....Probably sounds like Im being a dick but why should my finances suffer due to someone else?
Title: Re: When it rains it pours - what the hell is going on
Post by: erlknernjdefdefpo1 on May 03, 2013, 01:43 pm
I don't think it's 'randomly going offline' - the site is under attack and they are doing everything they can to provide as much uptime as possible. Much to DPR's credit I might add - I think at this point many people would have decided to shut up shop and leave with all the BTC in Vendor and Buyer accounts.

That is exactly why I only keep immediate transaction funds in the SR wallet - and not significant BTC holdings.

The BTC price may go up, may go down or may turn into a fucking unicorn for all we know - you're using a non fiat currency to BUY DRUGS ONLINE - and with that comes some risk.

Every penny I turn into bitcoin I expect to lose and get nothing in return. 99.999 percent of the time i'm wrong and i get drugs - ain't that wonderful?

If you can't afford to lose £60 then you shouldn't be playing the game.

I'm assuming the reimbursement of funds was a joke right?
Title: Re: When it rains it pours - what the hell is going on
Post by: psychedelicmind on May 03, 2013, 01:46 pm
What has angered me is YET AGAIN due to SR randomly going offline AGAIN I have lost £60 in the past 12 hours due to btc rates droppings and being unable to get onto the site to transfer...YET AGAIN.

I appreciate there are some issues with SR at the moment,but with respect it's pretty fucking out of order I keep having to lose money solely because the site is about as reliable as a chocolate teapot right now.I personally think reimbursement of the funds should be thought about here,as I am sure it wont be only me in this boat and considering its not our problem that we cant get onto the site....Probably sounds like Im being a dick but why should my finances suffer due to someone else?

I have lost quite a bit as well. It is frustrating. Twice in the last week, i've been in the middle of placing orders and then the site went down. By the time I got access again, I didn't have enough in my account to cover what I wanted to order. That is the joys of using bitcoin I guess...we are at the mercy of the market.

Hopefully the site will be back to it's best really soon :)
Title: Re: When it rains it pours - what the hell is going on
Post by: erlknernjdefdefpo1 on May 03, 2013, 01:48 pm
EDIT. Sorry for adding a dick-like reply - I did'nt see that you were a vendor.

Take my comments as if you were a buyer and i think that they're fair.

For VENDORS in the situation, then yes it does indeed suck.

Sorry comeflywithme! (tail between legs)
Title: Re: When it rains it pours - what the hell is going on
Post by: come_flywithme on May 03, 2013, 01:57 pm
EDIT. Sorry for adding a dick-like reply - I did'nt see that you were a vendor.

Take my comments as if you were a buyer and i think that they're fair.

For VENDORS in the situation, then yes it does indeed suck.

Sorry comeflywithme! (tail between legs)

Yes ha initially I did think the reply was you being a bit of a bell but everyone has their opinions!
Thankyou for the apology manning up is rare in this world and I really do appreciate it.For the BIGSCALE vendors on SR at the moment this must be causing them hell
Title: Re: When it rains it pours - what the hell is going on
Post by: ru5ty on May 03, 2013, 02:02 pm
What has angered me is YET AGAIN due to SR randomly going offline AGAIN I have lost £60 in the past 12 hours due to btc rates droppings and being unable to get onto the site to transfer...YET AGAIN.

I appreciate there are some issues with SR at the moment,but with respect it's pretty fucking out of order I keep having to lose money solely because the site is about as reliable as a chocolate teapot right now.I personally think reimbursement of the funds should be thought about here,as I am sure it wont be only me in this boat and considering its not our problem that we cant get onto the site....Probably sounds like Im being a dick but why should my finances suffer due to someone else?

I think there are many vendors with bigger issues than £60. Bitcoins are a hostile, risky investment. Sit on your coins for now. They'll regain value given enough time.

Edit: I also overlooked you're a vendor  :-[ Again though, I know these are frustrating times but this phase will pass soon enough I'm sure :)
Title: Re: When it rains it pours - what the hell is going on
Post by: come_flywithme on May 03, 2013, 02:05 pm
basically the stability of btc right now,if people FE and I have btc sitting in my vendor account which I CANNOT GET TO then that basically leaves me no choice apart from either getting a substantial increase in btc or a substantial loss...what i am trying to say is it is MY money i cannot access when it ISNT MY PROBLEM.

why dont they just have the btc account fluctuate with rates at all times, that way nobody is at a profit or a loss.....
Title: Re: When it rains it pours - what the hell is going on
Post by: Zdet98 on May 03, 2013, 04:13 pm
The btc price fluctuation today is crazy.


your telling me mate, i bought £40 worth last night before i went to bed, woke up this morning to find the price has
gone from £70Pbtc to £53Pbtc

but either way it dose not matter as i cant get on the road to get a gram of exchange's finest!
Just gotta sit tight and hope to get it ordered over the weekend!
Title: Re: When it rains it pours - what the hell is going on
Post by: railroadbill on May 03, 2013, 05:53 pm
In the words of quantum leap, Oh Boy.
Title: Re: When it rains it pours - what the hell is going on
Post by: ekoostik on May 03, 2013, 06:25 pm
imagine when BLF start shipping the ASIC's out in volume - GPU and FPGA mines are screwed on three fronts.

They're already starting to trickle out, and once the ASIC floodgates open, mining goes pro. Ballers only from then on.

I think most people are chalking up the recent btc weakness to the recent turmoil surrounding SR/tormail/mtgox uptime.

I chalk it up to Litecoin. I mean, c'mon...is it really just coincidental that LCs began to make a huge promotional push, and got Atlantis up and running, just as SR gets attacked...with the Bitcoin market is reacting negatively every time it should be reacting in a positive manner? Litecoin has almost doubled in that time.

This is an unregulated trade war between BC and LC...with SR, Atlantis, and MtGox used as pawns. All of us are stuck in the middle.
Title: Re: When it rains it pours - what the hell is going on
Post by: greenhaus on May 03, 2013, 06:43 pm
I'm really not suprised that mt.gox is under lawsuit in all honesty they run a very crappy business idk how they managed to get the most trades...seems like anytime i have to use them I'm sending them a ticket for some issue. it's gotten to the point where i expect them to put a hold on something for "review"
Title: Re: When it rains it pours - what the hell is going on
Post by: TylerDurdensPenis on May 03, 2013, 07:19 pm
THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!

If Mt. Gox goes down because of a lawsuit or something, someone else will be right there to take over. It would actually probably be good for BTC in the long run to have more competition in the exchange market area. With millions and millions of real dollars invested in bitcoins, their value will never fall to zero. They may be well overpriced right now, but I seriously doubt it. There is a finite # of BTC, so as demand grows so will their value. The inventors were genius in that respect, as well as most other respects.

Remember, BTC were worth, what, $10ea. at the beginning of the year? $50 just a month ago? The only people who would really lose big are people who are holding a major amount of bitcoins, and it's kind of their own fault for speculating in something so risky. That is part of the game. But a lot of people made huge profits this year when the value increased so dramatically, too. It's all in the game, yo. I do feel bad for vendors, since they are kind of stuck holding coins while SR is down. But I think that most of the bigger ones are hedged in real dollars (although I don't know exactly how that works).

I fully expect the price of BTC to go up in the long run. As it becomes a more popular form of currency, the demand will go up and therefore the price. The price will also stabilize. It's an extremely young currency, but clearly here to stay. In fact, smart investors would see this as a great opportunity to invest, especially if the price keeps falling. Remember, buy low, sell high.
Title: Re: When it rains it pours - what the hell is going on
Post by: jesse on May 03, 2013, 09:19 pm
better...don't sell for some time....long time.
It will stabilize ....go up and be stable.
If you see what happens....all the people who have some (not many) coins sell them in panic that their few coins are worth less now.
Yes, I lost ....big, 50 to 70%....if I was selling now ~! but I am not selling.
As a vendor I get more and more, not selling even one.
My buyers fear for me....think I loose and I do if I live in this moment.....I am not.
Maybe I ''loose'' now but they will go up and I double, triple etc my investment.
Sometimes you're the pigeon ...sometimes the statue ......
There are already big amounts in smart people's ''safes'' (wallets)...the Wrinkler? -facebook- brothers....millions invested in coins.
After the crisis in Cyprus I am sure a lot of people bought coins.
''They'' say that like SR has the major amount of coins ...sure there are many but SR is a small player considering....
As long as you can ''park'' your money for a year or so....go for it
Title: Re: When it rains it pours - what the hell is going on
Post by: Jack N Hoff on May 03, 2013, 11:33 pm
I made a thread about this 10 hours before this thread was posted.

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