Silk Road forums

Discussion => Off topic => Topic started by: TheStealthyRacoon on August 19, 2012, 10:04 pm

Title: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: TheStealthyRacoon on August 19, 2012, 10:04 pm
Ok so it peaked at a crazy value a couple of weeks ago. Those of us who were bitcoin rich were laughing and now it seems the tables have turned and its dropping faster than a fast thing.
We worried?
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: sakurio on August 19, 2012, 11:17 pm
I think it is expected for bitcoin to be maturing and not be nearly as volatile and easy to manipulate as it was last year. I'm expecting after all this ruckus is over it'll stabilize somewhere slightly higher than it was at the beginning of this bubble... Of course if I'm wrong and BTC crashes to the point of becoming next to worthless in the long run I'll be very surprised. Tor and services like SR will guarantee its success, and if either of those things are compromised they'd surely be replaced by newer alternatives.
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: flicky42 on August 19, 2012, 11:25 pm
Not at all, I expected this to happen when because of how difficult it is for people in some countries to gamble on the Olympics. I think during that cultural event people were spending the one currency that is global so now that it's over everyone is selling there BTCs. I'm predicting the will drop down pretty low around $4 US dollars and then stabilize back at 5 for a while.
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: Delta11 on August 19, 2012, 11:39 pm
I'm only crying because I went out of town this weekend and didn't expect to drop 50%, now I'm being forced into vacation mode until it stabilizes  :'(

Other than that though it shouldn't really hurt buyers unless of course you bought in at $14 and now your coins are now worth $7, but hopefully buyers are smarter than to hold onto their coins before making a purchase
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: trollsquad on August 20, 2012, 12:56 am
Sorry to hear that delta! We should know what is up tomorrow.  It's either going to drop a bunch or stay stable
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: LIGHTFLOWER on August 20, 2012, 12:59 am
I for one am not partaking in any of this panic selling nonsense. I advise fellow vendors to do the same.  :)
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: Delta11 on August 20, 2012, 01:09 am
Sorry to hear that delta! We should know what is up tomorrow.  It's either going to drop a bunch or stay stable
I feel like it'll go up and stay stable but we're not going to see those $14 prices for a while. We should just delete these threads and pretend like nothing is wrong so the new customers will be like "Oh hey look you can buy drugs using this thing called Bitcoin, it seems stable let's buy some!"  :D
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: LIGHTFLOWER on August 20, 2012, 01:11 am
Agreed. Delta. All of the upset is not good for business.
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: trollsquad on August 20, 2012, 01:19 am
Hah i like your  ways Delta

+karma
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: BlueSkyTraders on August 20, 2012, 01:38 am
Over on Bitcointalk, the HYIP “Bitcoin Savings & Trust” manager known as Pirateat40 (DPR’s lesser well-known nym on the clearnet) announced the closure of said program last Friday, with final payouts to begin Monday. The Is it or is it not a Ponzi? debate continues to rage, despite the fact that it is now closed. It’s been great theatre, and has had a much greater impact on BTC prices than anything that happens here on the Road.
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: rise_against on August 20, 2012, 03:16 am
its happened before it will happen again.  no use losing sleep over it
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: bananer on August 20, 2012, 03:31 am
I bought mine when they were at $12 then it dropped to $10 invested $100 more(I never learn) bought when it was 10.50 dropped again  >:( dammit, though I think I'll wait it out again... Is there a more extended view of the market?
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: trollsquad on August 20, 2012, 03:35 am
Over on Bitcointalk, the HYIP “Bitcoin Savings & Trust” manager known as Pirateat40 (DPR’s lesser well-known nym on the clearnet) announced the closure of said program last Friday, with final payouts to begin Monday. The Is it or is it not a Ponzi? debate continues to rage, despite the fact that it is now closed. It’s been great theatre, and has had a much greater impact on BTC prices than anything that happens here on the Road.

Rofl i highly doubt thats DPR. I'm sure he woukdnt be that stupid to connect his name to something like this. To similar.
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: rise_against on August 20, 2012, 03:43 am
Over on Bitcointalk, the HYIP “Bitcoin Savings & Trust” manager known as Pirateat40 (DPR’s lesser well-known nym on the clearnet) announced the closure of said program last Friday, with final payouts to begin Monday. The Is it or is it not a Ponzi? debate continues to rage, despite the fact that it is now closed. It’s been great theatre, and has had a much greater impact on BTC prices than anything that happens here on the Road.

pirate40 was taking coins from people. DPR has enough coins without having to resort to ponzi schemes on the side.
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: generationlost on August 20, 2012, 04:00 am
"When transactions go through Monday, we'll see a MASSIVE rally. Very well could be the last time we see a single digit Bitcoin price"

Quoting, seems quite plausible though (that there is going to be a rally Monday once banks are open)
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: awakened350 on August 20, 2012, 04:59 am
"When transactions go through Monday, we'll see a MASSIVE rally. Very well could be the last time we see a single digit Bitcoin price"

Quoting, seems quite plausible though (that there is going to be a rally Monday once banks are open)

I'm thinking the opposite. If pirateat40 does start paying people back a lot of people are going to have btc they didnt have access to and with all the panic going around a lot of them may sell. If he doesnt pay people back but starts selling them off we have the same issue. I really dont know which way this will go, too many factors and unknowns but my gut says tomorrow will bring lower prices and it will stabalize over the course of the wee.
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: müslix on August 20, 2012, 05:58 am
I didn't only expect it, I also predicted it. haha.

But I am not sure yet if this is really the turning point. It could also be a hidden countermeasure to calm down the deflation. I hope not and it will go to a new alltime low haha.

Remember guys: just like with the deflation, inflation (although more obvious) can not go on forever.
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: Christy Nugs on August 20, 2012, 06:09 am
yea i dont see it going back up soon but down - will it be at 3 or 5? idk
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: awakened350 on August 20, 2012, 07:19 am
I didn't only expect it, I also predicted it. haha.

But I am not sure yet if this is really the turning point. It could also be a hidden countermeasure to calm down the deflation. I hope not and it will go to a new alltime low haha.

Remember guys: just like with the deflation, inflation (although more obvious) can not go on forever.

I wouldnt get too excited about an all time low. Sure it would be good if you plan on speculating and buying a lot but it could be very bad for SR at least in the short term. Personally as a vendor I am being hit very hard by this. Sure there is hedging but hedging only exists while in escrow and I personally keep a fair amount of money in btc because cashing out is a complicated process for a vendor and I need btc to restock. My restocking is put on hold until things normalize and potentially until I have the money if things normalize too low. A huge blow to the market could scare off or at least hurt some of SR's best vendors.
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: Raoul Duke on August 20, 2012, 08:01 am
yeah i'd cash out mate, the BTC is proper unstable
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: ukbenjy on August 20, 2012, 09:08 am
Bitcoin investment yileds great profit when done RIGHT. Like from 3.14 too 8.9 I jumped on (Unfortunately only with a grand sterling)

That's a good investment man. I bought them at £9.50, now they're £5.50. Pretty sure I did that wrong!!
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: tea_drinker on August 20, 2012, 12:56 pm
If you ask me, BTC below <$10 represents good value to many people (including me). I think a lot of people are loading up on coin at this price..
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: zapatista36 on August 20, 2012, 11:17 pm
I don't think BTC will properly stabilize until it's more widely accepted as a digital currency.  No disrespect to those who bought up in bulk looking to make a decent profit, but BTC's still pretty marginal despite the increasing number of exchanges appearing, and one of the drivers behind it's introduction - as far as I understood it anyway - was to have a currency that attempted to avoid the capacity for middlemen/speculation, and the destabilizing effect this can have on certain countries currencies - so if you try to speculate on it you need to accept the risk, like any other financial index.  I personally would hate to see it used predominantly in this fashion as it defeats the purpose of its ethos. There's a BTC conference in London in September, and the recommendations from that forum may show how it will develop positively over the next months/year.

...just my 0.02 BTC
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: Twelve_Pickles on August 21, 2012, 12:04 am
it moves up, like a mythical seabeast,
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: TheStealthyRacoon on August 21, 2012, 08:09 am
That's a good investment man. I bought them at £9.50, now they're £5.50. Pretty sure I did that wrong!!
Im sorry to hear that, in fairness they did look like they were going to keep climbing forever.
Problem with bitcon profit is that you get commission every time you exchange it for another currency, so if you havnt made a considerable gain, the commission takes it all. Or, like me, you end up spending your profit on SR haha.
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: sbaxter on August 21, 2012, 09:05 am
I usually spend all BTCs I have "earned" on SR again, too ;)

But this whole thing made me realize just how easy it would be to totally destabilize
the BTC economy. Afaik there are currently about half of all possible BTCs (20 million)
in "circulation".
That is about 100 million $ (10 million BTC x 10$), so with a "little" playing money, anyone,
any agency, LE, etc. could buy a very substantial amount of BTCs and play havoc with the market.

I also remember having read here or at the BMR forum that ruining the BTC economy might be the
easiest way for LE to heavily damage this emerging underground market. It was some kind of interview
with the inventor of TOR and others...

Or am I wrong here? (I have no background in economics, so this is quite likely)
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: tea_drinker on August 21, 2012, 11:11 am
The only way to destabilize it, would be to keep moving it up and down.

Move it up, we adjust, likewise if they move it down.

If they have to move it up and down, that means for some users, LE will be subsidizing their drugs sometimes ;)
Title: Re: Drop in Bitcoin value; alarming or expected?
Post by: tea_drinker on August 21, 2012, 11:13 am
Or they could buy up all the BTC continually.... I suppose there any many ways.

In any case, whatever happens, we will adapt - a new more advanced crypto-currency will emerge.