Silk Road forums
Discussion => Silk Road discussion => Topic started by: jaythejoy on November 14, 2012, 12:12 am
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Since SR is the biggest onion site that uses BTC as currency, the downtime of SR and taking of a massive amount BTC out of circulation should have some effect on the BTC exchange rate. Assuming SR goes back up soon, when the BTC are back in exchange, this could go three ways:
1) SR Vendors have access to massive amount of BTC and must exchange for USD/GBP/whathaveyou$$ to restock products.
Supply >Demand of BTC ; BTC value drops
2) SR Buyers that have been waiting to make a purchase are relieved that SR is back up and buy BTC (assuming they haven't bought it before SR's downtime) and Demand > Supply of BTC; BTC value rises
3) Scenarios 1 and 2 both occur and SR Vendors selling of BTC meets SR Buyer's demands. BTC value stays relatively the same
I think scenario 1 is bound to happen. I'm about to buy some BTC, but I'm going to wait until SR is back up. Any thoughts?
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3.
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less ppl sell / buy bitcoins(cause SR is standing still). don't think it changes the value +/- pretty much
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no effect on the exchange rate of bitcoins (as it hasn't in the last 5 days).
Oh, really? http://anonym.to/?http://i.imgur.com/a46gF.png [Clearnet]
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I agree. Price movements in the BTC market have far more to do with speculators than underlying market fundamentals such as activity on SR.
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SR's share of the bitcoin economy is greatly exaggerated. If you look at the bitcoin charts, the daily trading volume is between $150,000 and $350,000, so an average of $250,000. That's $75 million a month. SR does about $2 million in business a month, or less than 3% of the overall bitcoin economy. If SR shutdown (as it basically has), it would have almost no effect on the exchange rate of bitcoins (as it hasn't in the last 5 days).
+1
i'm sure there are much bigger fish than SR using BC. people like international arms dealers would be more likely to effect the exchange rate.
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No. The BTC value has actually been remarkably stable over the last 5 days compared to historical fluctuations. SR appears to have no impact whatsoever.
EXACTLY! I wondered if it was having an effect on BTC prices and looked at it already, it's been VERY stable, SR officially has no immediate impact on the current cost of coins.
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I agree with shermit, seems to be quite steady, in fact I think it's been steadier since the outage...
MMM
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Personally, my speculation amount of BTC greatly exceeds my SR use. I believe BTC prices are heavily influence by the deep web, but not SR, not anymore. At SR inception yes, there was the fear of government intervention. But as time went on, it became apparent there is nothing they can do to the deep web itself. Even if SR goes down permanently, other sites will spring up. The overall demand for BTC will see a short term decline at worst. Full disclosure, I'm still long BTC. But I still think there is room for growth, so get in on this and make me more money.